Iran attacks have sidelined 17% of Qatar’s LNG exports for up to five years
Canada’s window to sell more liquefied natural gas to Asia is opening on the back of war in Iran and a choked Strait of Hormuz, but TC Energy Corp.’s chief executive says Ottawa’s slow permitting still threatens to shut it.
Permitting delays put Canadian projects at a disadvantage
Francois Poirier said Canada’s process for approving energy infrastructure remains “far too slow,” despite Prime Minister Mark Carney’s creation of the Major Projects Office to steer proposals to approval within two years, according to interviews reported by the Financial Post.
He reiterated his call for six‑month timelines for key permits.
“We’re competing for international customers to deliver them LNG. We want to diversify beyond the US We don’t get to pick the timelines,” he told Bloomberg.
Poirier pointed to TC Energy’s Southeast Gateway natural gas pipeline in Mexico, where regulators granted permits in seven months, and said “no environmental corners were cut,” according to the Financial Post.
“The shorter the permitting timelines in Canada, the more competitive Canada can be,” he told BNN Bloomberg, adding that he wants timelines for pipelines to the coast to be “significantly shorter.”
Federal legislation now caps federal assessments at two years, but BNN Bloomberg reports that Poirier and other industry leaders continue to push for six‑month approvals.
Middle East conflict boosts appeal of West Coast LNG
Poirier said recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have underscored both “how fragile the balance is between supply and demand” and the value of Canadian LNG that can avoid global chokepoints.
BNN Bloomberg reports that the Strait of Hormuz, through which one fifth of the world’s oil and LNG typically pass, “has been all but choked off in recent weeks, sending Asian and European gas prices soaring.”
QatarEnergy’s chief executive told Reuters that Iranian attacks have taken 17 per cent of the country’s LNG export capacity offline, removing almost 13m tonnes per year for three to five years.
Against that backdrop, Poirier said the prospects for (Ksi Lisims LNG) “moving forward are improving,” as Asian buyers seek West Coast Canadian LNG that can reach their markets while “avoid[ing] the areas where there is currently some geopolitical tension,” according to the Financial Post.
BNN Bloomberg adds that exports from the BC coast have shorter shipping distances to Asia and can cross the Pacific “relatively unimpeded.”
Gitane De Silva, former chief executive of the Canada Energy Regulator, said the conflict “raises the interest in investing in energy in countries where there’s political stability, where there’s no choke point like there is in the Strait of Hormuz, and there’s no geopolitical risk.”
TC Energy weighs possible return to Prince Rupert line
Two years after exiting the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission (PRGT) project, Poirier said TC Energy could be open to getting involved again if approached, the Financial Post reports.
He said the pipeline intended to supply Ksi Lisims LNG “will require an ‘experienced operator’ to build and run it,” and added that his company “might be” interested in that role if approached, although there have been no talks and any decision would depend on other opportunities at the time.
“There is a need for them to partner with somebody, and my view is that the odds of that project getting permitted are getting better by the day, given the overall tone in the marketplace,” he said.
The Financial Post reports that PRGT, designed to carry two billion cubic feet per day of gas from northeastern BC to the coast, was proposed in 2013 by TC Energy (then TransCanada) to supply the Petronas‑backed Pacific NorthWest LNG project.
After Petronas exited in 2017, the Nisga’a Nation and Houston‑based Western LNG took over the LNG project and later acquired the pipeline permits and certificates.
Poirier said cost overruns on Coastal GasLink prompted TC Energy to sell assets, including PRGT, in a bid to shore up its balance sheet, with the project ultimately sold to the Nisga’a Nation and Western LNG in March 2024.
He said the company was “capital constrained” at the time and still believes “an Indigenous-led project would have the best odds of (proceeding).”
De Silva told the Financial Post it would be “logical” for the Nisga’a Nation and Western LNG to partner with an established pipeline company, potentially keeping ownership while tapping TC Energy’s “expertise and prior knowledge of the project.”
Asked if TC has the appetite to build another major pipeline in BC, Poirier said, “As opposed to theorizing on what would happen, I would prefer to wait and see when and if they come to us.”
Capital allocation, political pressure and transition risk
Poirier emphasized that TC Energy has focused on US projects in recent years, where data‑centre and LNG growth have supported strong gas‑pipeline demand and “better risk-adjusted returns” than in Canada.
Analysts expect TC to keep concentrating on lower‑risk US expansions, including a potential major build‑out of its Columbia Gas Transmission system, the Financial Post reports.
In Canada, TC could expand its Coastal GasLink pipeline if the Shell‑led LNG Canada project proceeds with a second phase that would double output to 28m tonnes per year, with a final investment decision expected later this year.
TC is also considering an expansion of Bruce Power in Ontario.
The Financial Post reports that TC has reined in debt and focused on smaller system expansions, particularly in the US, and that analysts say the company may now be preparing to loosen its self‑imposed $6bn annual spending cap.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Maurice Choy wrote that a recent toll settlement on the Canadian Mainline, combined with an earlier NGTL agreement, is “potentially paving the way for a more attractive deployment of capital in Canadian natural gas pipelines moving forward.”
Still, TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil told the Financial Post there is “a lot of scar tissue” around major greenfield builds in BC and that TC would need the “right contractual protections,” stakeholder buy‑in and returns before advancing another project.
The politics are shifting as well.
After the Iran conflict began, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre asked Carney for changes to energy policy, including a guaranteed six‑month approval timeline and scrapping a law that prohibits oil tankers along much of Canada’s West Coast.
Government‑owned Trans Mountain Corp. is planning a series of expansions on its main crude line that will add capacity from early next year, with all of that oil loaded onto tankers in the Vancouver region.
Not all investors accept the security‑of‑supply case driving these debates.
A report from Investors for Paris Compliance argued that Canada’s LNG push is “a risky one,” and said equity investors would likely bear most losses if projects sour, BNN Bloomberg reports.
It said proponents who invoke “security” are “wilfully ignoring the insecurity of the industry” and warned that more LNG would simply swap dependence on US trade for “fossil fuel overproduction.”
