Study says new pipeline buildout could support 112,000 extra Canadian jobs a year
Canada could add about $31.4bn a year to real GDP by the early 2030s simply by building and filling more oil pipelines, according to a new joint report by Studio.Energy and ATB Economics.
The study, The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity, models an extra 1.5 million barrels per day (MMB/d) of oil export capacity coming online between 2027 and 2035.
According to the authors, that buildout would lift Canada’s real GDP by an average of $31.4bn a year in 2017 dollars over the period, a gain of roughly 1.1 percent relative to a baseline with only existing pipelines and minor expansions.
The analysis also finds the plan would support about 112,000 additional jobs a year, with employment peaking at 136,100 during the height of construction.
The report treats GDP as a form of economic leverage in a “more competitive and coercive global economic environment.”
ATB Economics and Studio.Energy argue that Canada has struggled to raise GDP per person because of weak business investment and exports, and say expanded energy export capacity can help reverse that.
Canada can “supply a vital commodity to the world” and boost its economy, but GDP growth will take more than aspirations, said Peter Tertzakian, founder and CEO at Studio.Energy.
He said it will depend on export infrastructure, higher production and the confidence to build.
According to the report, the scenario assumes several pipeline projects that together add 1.5 MMB/d of export capacity by 2035.
About 500,000 barrels per day would come from expansion projects now being evaluated by Trans Mountain, South Bow and Enbridge.
In addition, the analysis assumes a provincially backed West Coast pipeline capable of carrying another 1.0 MMB/d advances under a Memorandum of Understanding signed on 27 November 2025 by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.
Because that West Coast line depends on the Pathways carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) project, the report assumes Pathways Phase 1 proceeds.
It adjusts Pathways’ initial cost to about $20bn to reflect inflation.
The new greenfield West Coast pipeline itself is estimated at $35bn and is assumed to enter service by 2035.
Studio.Energy and ATB Economics estimate that building the pipelines requires $41bn in cumulative investment, while upstream producers would need to invest more than $100bn to develop enough oil to fill them.
The report attributes roughly 90 percent of that upstream capital to the oil sands, with the remainder going to conventional oil.
The authors state that pipeline construction initially drives GDP through investment spending on labour, engineering, steel, equipment and services.
As projects are completed and filled, export income becomes the main driver, with spillovers to consumption, employment and fiscal revenues.
Under the model, the peak impact on real GDP is $39.7bn in 2033, a 1.4 percent lift over the baseline.
According to ATB Economics and Stokes Economics, the projects raise Canada’s real GDP by between 0.6 percent and 1.4 percent from 2027 to 2035, averaging 1.1 percent.
They also report that the program would support about 112,000 additional jobs a year over that period.
These jobs extend beyond the energy sector into engineering and construction services, manufacturing, transportation, equipment supply, finance and professional services.
Mark Parsons, vice-president and chief economist at ATB Financial, said “new energy infrastructure doesn't yield just a marginal gain for Canada's economy — it's a structural shift,” and argued that greater export capacity would improve Canada's economic health and global standing when it matters most.
Most of the economic impact sits in Alberta and British Columbia, where the majority of construction and production activity occurs.
According to the report, Alberta’s real GDP rises between 2.6 percent and 6.5 percent relative to the base case, for an average impact of 5.1 percent, while British Columbia’s real GDP increases between 0.6 percent and 1.0 percent, averaging 0.8 percent.
The model also assumes Alberta’s real oil and gas exports end the forecast period roughly 30 percent higher than in the baseline, reflecting improved takeaway capacity and access to global markets.
The report challenges the idea that new oil pipelines will soon become stranded assets.
Studio.Energy notes that oil is not only a transportation fuel but a critical input for petrochemicals, materials, fertilisers, aviation, shipping and heavy industry, and says Canadian heavy crude is particularly well suited for new integrated refining and petrochemical complexes in Asia and the Middle East.
Accessing those markets, the authors argue, requires reliable, long‑life export infrastructure.
