US deal aims to bring regulated crypto predictions markets to retail investors. Canada is ahead of the curve
Event contracts, once a niche product traded on offshore platforms, are steadily becoming part of the mainstream investing conversation.
A new alliance between crypto exchange Gemini Space Station, Inc. and fintech infrastructure provider Apex Fintech Solutions Inc. is the latest indication of just how fast that shift is happening.
The two companies announced Monday (August 24) that they have signed a letter of intent under which Gemini Titan, a subsidiary of Nasdaq-listed Gemini, would become the exclusive regulated venue for crypto event contracts distributed through Apex's Futures Commission Merchant to Apex's US brokerage customers.
In Canada, the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization authorized two investment dealers (Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers Canada) to facilitate trading in event contracts as of March 26, 2026, under rules set out in CIRO Administrative Bulletin 26-0076.
Wealthsimple has since launched Wealthsimple Predict, a prediction market trading app powered by US-based platform Kalshi, aiming to reach approximately four million Canadian clients.
The contracts are priced under a dollar, cover economic and financial events such as Bank of Canada rate decisions and inflation data, and exclude sports and politics under CIRO's current framework.
What CIRO's rules actually allow
CIRO's authorised categories are narrow: economic forecasts covering sovereign debt, inflation, central bank reserves, labour markets, and housing; environmental forecasts tracking climate indicators; and financial indicators including US 500 Forecast Contracts based on CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures.
Contracts must have a minimum term of 30 days to maturity. Margin accounts are prohibited, and no form of client leverage is permitted.
Critically, election contracts, contracts tied to political events or party nominations, and referendums are banned.
The Canadian Securities Administrators and CIRO have both stated publicly they will continue monitoring the space and plan to issue further guidance, which could bring additional restrictions.
Clients who have encountered prediction markets through US platforms, social media, or the Wealthsimple app are engaging with a product category whose rules are still being written.
The CSA and CIRO reminded industry participants and investors of the current rules in an April 2026 joint statement, a signal that regulators are watching how retail adoption develops.
What the data says about who wins
A March 2026 analysis of 1.4 million Polymarket users, covering US$20 billion in trading volume between November 2022 and March 2026, was conducted by researchers at ESSEC Business School, HEC Montréal, and the University of Toronto.
It found that 70.8 per cent of users lost money overall, and that the median user lost US$2 across all trades. The top one per cent of traders captured 84 per cent of all gains.
Charles Martineau, an associate professor of finance at the University of Toronto and a co-author of the study, was direct in his assessment: "Unless you're very lucky or extremely good at forecasting, your expectation of making money is zero."
That data aligns with what Canadians themselves appear to think at least for now.
A poll conducted by Ipsos in April 2026 on behalf of CIBC Investor's Edge, which surveyed 1,001 Canadians aged 18 and over, found that 75 per cent view prediction markets as gambling rather than investing, and that 69 per cent believe prediction markets primarily benefit those with insider information.
Only four per cent of respondents had participated in prediction markets in the past 12 months, and roughly 89 per cent said they had not engaged and did not intend to. Seventy-three per cent said they support consumer protections and defined limits on such platforms.
Luka Marjanovic, managing director of CIBC Investor's Edge, put the distinction plainly: "These products require a different view of risk, time horizon and decision-making than long-term investing."
