Research shows cautious attitudes toward event-based trading as platforms expand their higher-risk offerings
Most Canadians view prediction markets as closer to gambling than to legitimate investing, according to new polling from CIBC Investor's Edge that reveals a sharp divide in how people categorize different types of financial activity.
Three in four respondents said prediction markets resemble gambling more than investing, while almost six in ten said they have no place on traditional investment platforms. Just 4% reported participating in prediction markets over the past 12 months, compared with 5% each for options trading and cryptocurrency.
Nearly nine in ten said they had not engaged with prediction markets and had no intention of doing so.
"Prediction markets are drawing more attention from the investment community, but they are also raising important questions about how these products are positioned for everyday investors," said Luka Marjanovic, managing director and head of CIBC Investor's Edge. "Our data shows Canadians are approaching these products cautiously, with nearly three-quarters saying prediction markets are more like gambling than investing. The key for direct investors, is understanding that these products require a different view of risk, time horizon and decision-making than long-term investing."
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The data also points to a preference for tried-and-tested approaches. Portfolio investing was seen as offering high returns by 57% of respondents, and individual stock trading by 54%, compared with 29% for prediction markets and just 18% for sports betting.
Amid broader market turbulence, half of those polled said their investment strategy had remained unchanged. Among those who had adjusted course, the shift was decisively conservative: respondents were three times more likely to have moved toward lower-risk, long-term strategies (24%) than toward higher-risk ones (8%).
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More than two thirds of respondents (69%) believe prediction markets primarily benefit those with insider information, while 73% said access to such platforms should come with consumer protections and defined limits.
"As Canadians navigate a new environment of choice and risk, trust and confidence are more important than ever," Marjanovic added. "That's where platforms offering clear educational content, timely market research, and tools to help people better understand risk can play a meaningful role in supporting more informed decisions."
The Ipsos survey, conducted April 8-9 on behalf of CIBC Investor's Edge, polled 1,001 Canadians aged 18 and over.
