Legal hurdles, constitutional barriers and a confusing referendum question cloud the path forward as both sides gear up for October
A federalist campaign launched in Edmonton this weekend, a constitutional law expert is warning that Alberta separation would open a legal "Pandora's box," and new polling shows most Albertans would vote to remain in Canada; but the five-month sprint to the Oct. 19 referendum is only just beginning.
Premier Danielle Smith announced last week that the October referendum will ask Albertans whether the province should remain part of Canada or whether the government should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada. The 37-word question was crafted, Smith has said, to "appease both sides of the debate."
New data from the Angus Reid Institute, based on an online survey of 800 Alberta adults conducted May 22 to 24, suggests the wording may be doing neither side any favours.
Half of respondents described the question as confusing, including 41% of Smith's own United Conservative Party supporters. When asked how they would vote on the official question, 60% said they would reject starting the separation process against 35% who would support it. Support for federalism grows further when a simplified hypothetical is posed: asked plainly whether Alberta should leave or stay, 67% said stay and 30% said leave.
Thomas Lukaszuk, Alberta's former deputy premier, launched his Forever Canadian campaign Saturday outside its new Edmonton headquarters to a crowd of hundreds dressed in red and white, waving Canadian flags and singing the national anthem, CBC News reported. Lukaszuk plans to spend the next six months crisscrossing the province on what he's calling his Unity Bus.
"I will be on the road for the next six months, riding in this bus from town to town, campground to campground," he told the crowd, according to CBC News.
The campaign will include door-knocking, lawn signs bearing the Canadian flag, and voter information drives. Lukaszuk pushed back on Smith's framing that his earlier petition — which gathered more than 400,000 verified signatures — was evidence Albertans wanted a referendum.
"The fact is that the people collected signatures and signed the Forever Canadian petition to prevent a referendum from happening because we knew that separatists were going to file," he told CBC News. "Thousands of people can attest to the fact, frankly, they don't want a referendum. It's being hoisted upon us. We didn't ask for this but since the premier wants a referendum we will be there and we will vote."
Legal complexity
Even if separatists were to prevail in a future binding vote, the legal road ahead would be extraordinarily complex.
Constitutional law expert Errol Mendes told CTV News the current referendum question falls short of what the law requires. "It can't be anywhere close to what she's put forward. It has to be a very simple clear question," he said.
A majority vote for separation in a binding referendum would trigger the Clarity Act, federal legislation passed in 2000 in the wake of the 1995 Quebec referendum.
The act requires Parliament to assess whether the referendum question was clear and direct, and whether a clear majority supported secession before the federal government would be obligated to enter negotiations — though Mendes told CTV News the Supreme Court has never defined precisely what that threshold means.
First Nations consultation adds another layer of complexity. Earlier this month, an Alberta judge threw out the pro-separation Stay Free Alberta petition specifically because Smith's government failed to consult Indigenous communities.
"When you talk about the province, you're also talking about a substantial part of the province (being) under treaty lands, and under the treaties that were concluded with the Crown, not just Canada," Mendes told CTV News.
Mendes told CTV News, adding that negotiations alone, over military assets, the Canada Pension Plan and a host of other entanglements, would likely consume years if not decades.
The Angus Reid data suggest Albertans are broadly skeptical that the process would be clean regardless of how the vote goes.
Seven in ten respondents said that even a no result in October would not end the separatist movement, with most believing independence advocates would refuse to accept the outcome. Among those who said they would themselves vote to leave in a hypothetical binding referendum; opinion was almost evenly divided on whether separatists would ultimately honor a democratic defeat.
