Three independent actuaries scrutinized the CPP report advisors lean on - here's their verdict
An independent panel has affirmed the actuarial report advisors rely on to gauge the Canada Pension Plan's long-term health, finding its methods and assumptions reasonable.
The Office of the Chief Actuary released the panel's findings on July 3, 2026. Three independent actuaries - Stephen Butterfield, Iyad Hourani and Michel St-Germain, all Fellows of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries - concluded that the OCA's work on the 32nd Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan complied with statutory requirements and all relevant professional standards of practice. The Chief Actuary and staff, they said, acted with competence, commitment and professionalism.
For advisors, the report matters because it is the document that anchors retirement-income planning. It puts the base CPP's minimum contribution rate at 9.21% for the years 2028 to 2033 and 9.19% for 2034 and after - below the 9.9% rate now written into law. In plain terms, current contributions are more than enough to sustain the base plan. The additional CPP's minimum rates, at 2.01% and 8.04%, sit slightly above the legislated 2.0% and 8.0%, but the report says they fall within permitted deviations. Absent action by the federal and provincial finance ministers, the statutory rates stay as scheduled.
The review also surfaced a point advisors can use with clients. The panel observed that Canadians and their financial planners are gradually recognizing the value of deferring a CPP pension, and that many planners now recommend it. It expects more Canadians to delay claiming as they weigh working longer, longevity, the implicit return from waiting and the tax effect of drawing a pension while still on the job.
The panel did not treat the plan as risk-free. It called investment risk the single largest risk facing the CPP - the base plan held $651 billion in assets and the additional plan $54 billion as at December 31, 2024 - and urged readers to study the report's sensitivity tests and scenario analyses closely. In an appendix it noted fell outside its formal mandate, the panel suggested the plan's Stewards review the current financing policy, cautioning that undervalued risks could shift costs to the next generation.
The panel made six recommendations to sharpen future reports, covering stronger earnings and migration data including better identification of non-permanent residents, more analysis of workforce participation at older ages, a closer look at earnings distribution trends, fuller disclosure of scenarios that could push the base plan's minimum rate up to the legislated 9.9%, and continued work on climate-change scenarios. The previous panel, reviewing the 31st report, had made 17.
The United Kingdom Government Actuary's Department confirmed the panel conducted its work with appropriate professional rigor. Chief Actuary Assia Billig said the findings affirm the quality, rigor and professionalism of the office's work and reinforce the value of forward-looking analysis in a climate of heightened risk. The OCA produces an actuarial report on the CPP every three years.
The full text of the Review of the 32nd Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan is available at https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/oca/independent-peer-reviews/review-32nd-actuarial-report-canada-pension-plan.
