Owners cite rising costs and tight margins as barriers to capitalizing on consumer demand
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is drawing Canadians toward local businesses in significant numbers, but a new study suggests the tournament may deliver far less of an economic boost than the consumer enthusiasm warrants.
One in five Canadians — 22% — say they plan to watch World Cup matches at a locally or independently owned business, making them 11 times more likely to choose a neighbourhood venue over a national chain or large venue, where just 2% intend to watch.
But despite that pronounced consumer preference, 58% of small business owners expect the tournament to generate no additional revenue compared to a typical summer.
Those findings come from the 2026 Small Business Pulse by Merchant Growth, a Canadian online financing provider, which combined responses from 130 small business owners with a national Angus Reid survey of 1,504 Canadians.
It follows a BMO report that found that, while Canada should enjoy a $6.5 billion economic boost, the benefits will be uneven, with host cities Toronto and Vancouver taking the lion’s share of the gains.
"The World Cup is a major economic moment, but it will not benefit every small business equally," said David Gens, Founder and CEO of Merchant Growth. "Businesses with the right location, staffing and cash flow may be able to turn increased consumer activity into revenue. But for many owners, rising operating costs and tight margins mean they are being cautious about investing ahead of the opportunity. Too often, small businesses do not realize there are flexible financing options beyond traditional banks that can help them prepare for moments of increased demand."
Consumers who plan to watch outside the home expect to spend an average of $52 per visit on food and drinks, with Gen X spending the most at $60 per visit and Boomers close behind at $56. Gen Z visitors average $41 per outing, while Millennials sit near the middle at $51. For businesses that can attract older customers, those figures represent a meaningful per-visit revenue opportunity — provided they are operationally ready to handle it.
The data suggests most are not. Only 37% of small businesses anticipate any World Cup revenue lift, and operational preparations remain thin across the board. Just 14% have boosted inventory, the same share that has promoted their business on social media in connection with the tournament. Twelve percent have extended operating hours, 10% have brought on extra staff, and only 5% have sought financing to fund their preparations.
Cost pressure is the primary explanation. About 22% of owners cited a lack of cash or access to financing as the barrier to investing ahead of the tournament, while 21% said escalating operating costs have left no room for additional spending.
The constraints extend well beyond the World Cup. Nearly three in four small business owners — 71% — believe Canada is either already in an economic downturn or is likely to enter one within the next 12 months, down from 83% a year ago but still a notably elevated reading. The top cost pressures owners face this summer include fuel increases tied to global trade disruptions, cited by 42%, rising utility bills at 37%, weaker consumer demand also at 37%, labour costs and minimum wage increases at 30%, and commercial rent increases at 26%.
Those pressures are driving a defensive posture rather than an expansionary one. Over the past year, 55% of small businesses have cut spending, 25% have delayed hiring, 25% have raised prices, 22% have paused expansion plans, and 20% have reduced their workforce.
Consumer loyalty to local businesses this summer is real but conditional on price. While 60% of Canadians say they will choose locally or independently owned businesses when dining out, 69% identify price and deals as their primary consideration. Only 40% say they would pay a premium specifically to support a local operation.
