Economists see Toronto and Vancouver driving the bulk of gains, but warns public costs fall unevenly on host cities
The world’s biggest soccer tournament will generate a measurable but limited economic lift for all three host nations, with Canada alone potentially seeing up to $6.5 billion in incremental quarterly GDP, according to a special report published Monday by BMO Capital Markets Economic Research.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup begins next week, running from June 11 to July 19 across 16 cities in the US, Canada and Mexico; the first ever co-hosted across three countries. With 48 teams competing in 104 matches, total attendance could potentially exceed 7 million fans. It is the largest World Cup in history by format, with 60% more games than the Qatar edition in 2022.
But what could it mean for the Canadian economy?
"Mega sporting events of this scale don't transform economies overnight, but they do create a meaningful surge in demand over a concentrated period," said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO. "In Canada, tourism, accommodation, food services and local entertainment stand to benefit most – particularly in the host cities."
Toronto and Vancouver are the two Canadian host cities, each carrying a disproportionately large share of national GDP exposure relative to most of their US counterparts.
When weighted by their share of total domestic matches, the average Canadian host city accounts for 13.1% of national GDP, versus just 3.4% for the typical US venue. That concentration means the resident spending channel (covering transit, restaurants, bars and local accommodation) hits harder in Canada relative to its size.
BMO's economists modeled spending uplifts of 10% to 25% across the six-week window, then applied a 30% to 50% discount to reflect substitution effects, since domestic residents largely redirect rather than add to their overall spending.
Under those assumptions, the tourism channel is projected to contribute C$1 billion to C$5 billion to Canada's quarterly GDP, with domestic consumption adding a further C$500 million to C$1.5 billion. Combined, the range lands between C$1.5 billion and C$6.5 billion, translating to roughly 0.1 percentage points of quarterly annualized GDP growth split across the second and third quarters of the year.
Ontario and British Columbia could see growth impacts two to three times the national figure. Employment is also expected to register a temporary lift, concentrated in tourism-facing sectors.
Hospitality gains
Bars and restaurants stand to benefit materially. During the 2022 World Cup, spending at those establishments in Canada rose by more than 10%, according to Moneris data cited in the BMO report, though economists note that only outlays by international visitors represent a net gain for the economy.
On the tourism side, accommodation bookings and room rates rose in host cities after the tournament draw in December, with demand particularly visible around key fixtures in Toronto and Vancouver.
But more recent data from the American Hotel and Lodging Association indicate that bookings have since slowed and are falling short of initial projections, with visa and immigration concerns cited as the most common barriers to travel. An oil price shock has added further cost pressure for would-be visitors.
The US is positioned to capture the largest share of overall economic activity, drawing roughly four-fifths of all fan spending by virtue of hosting 11 of the 16 venues. BMO estimates quarterly US GDP gains of between $22 billion and $76 billion from the tourism channel alone, with a further $1 billion to $5 billion from domestic resident activity — equivalent to a 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point lift to annualized quarterly growth.
Dallas leads all venues in projected spending, with nine scheduled matches and a 94,000-seat stadium giving it roughly 12% of total fan-attendance-based outlays. New Jersey and Miami are hosting the final and bronze-medal matches respectively, driving particular strength in bookings around those fixtures.
What about the cost?
The cost picture is more complicated, especially for Canada. Toronto and Vancouver have recorded some of the steepest cost overruns of any host city in the tournament, driven by inflation, FIFA-mandated stadium upgrades, temporary seating expansions and sharply higher security requirements.
Canada's Parliamentary Budget Officer has placed the combined public-sector bill for the two cities at just over $1 billion, with the federal government covering just under half. Most economic gains flow to private-sector businesses while public entities in Toronto and Vancouver absorb a disproportionate share of financial risk.
US host cities, by contrast, have largely relied on privately funded non-profit committees better positioned to scale back obligations and draw on corporate sponsorships when costs rise. Mexico has taken a different approach, folding its World Cup expenditures into a broader national infrastructure program.
"As the Official Bank of Canada Soccer and the Canadian National Teams, BMO sees this moment as an opportunity to celebrate the continued growth and momentum of the game in Canada, and to support the communities and fans that bring it to life across the country," said Catherine Roche, chief marketing and communications officer at BMO.
Aggregate GDP gains appear sufficient to outweigh upfront costs at the national level, but the distribution of those returns leaves Canadian governments carrying an outsized share of the tab. Infrastructure investments may generate longer-run returns, but BMO's bottom line is clear: the economic case for hosting rests on a short-term demand bump, not a foundation for sustained growth.
