CUSMA still shields 90 percent of Canadian exports and runs another decade, lawyers note
CUSMA shields roughly 90 percent of Canada's exports from US tariffs which is what gives weight to US President Donald Trump's remark on Wednesday that he is "not looking to renew it."
According to CBC News, the agreement does not expire until 2036, and a country can only exit by giving six months' notice.
William Pellerin of McMillan LLP told the same outlet that "there are 10 years left to this trade agreement unless the US president triggers the escape clause."
Mark Warner of MAAW Law told the outlet that Trump did not actually threaten to withdraw and "likes to up the ante and get people riled as part of a negotiating tactic," predicting the countries settle on annual reviews.
By July 1, the three nations must choose between renewing the deal for 16 years or moving to annual reviews, according to BNN Bloomberg.
Trump, speaking in the Oval Office, again said the US does not need its neighbours, telling reporters the country needs nothing from Canada or Mexico "but they need everything that we have," the New York Times reported.
If the US declines to renew, the pact stays in force while the three governments negotiate changes, per CBC News.
The US and Mexico will hold a second round in Washington on June 16 and 17 and a third in Mexico City the week of July 20, Reuters reported.
Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and chief negotiator Janice Charette met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington last week, according to CBC News.
Canada tabled proposals on what LeBlanc called "long-standing issues" raised by the US.
Canada's priority is relief from Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and softwood lumber though Greer has signalled that tariffs are a cost of accessing the US market.
CUSMA underpins nearly US$1.6tn in annual trilateral trade, as per Reuters, which reported the US ran a US$46bn goods deficit with Canada in 2025.
So far in 2026, Canada has exported US$127bn in goods to the US and imported US$114bn, handing the US a US$13bn deficit, according to US Census Bureau data cited by BNN Bloomberg.
Trump has long cited that gap, saying "We should have surpluses with them."
CTV News political commentator Tom Mulcair tied the deficit to energy, saying it "is largely due to the fact that we export, cheaply, lots of petroleum straight to the US to be refined there."
After domestic needs, 95 percent of Canadian oil exports flow to the US, according to a Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers analysis cited by BNN Bloomberg.
Mulcair dismissed the rhetoric as "typical Donald Trump bluster."
US farm interests, meanwhile, are pushing to keep the deal.
At a House agriculture committee hearing, lawmakers and industry leaders urged the administration to extend CUSMA, according to CBC News.
Republican chairman Glenn Thompson called it "extremely beneficial" to US farmers and consumers, and the American Soybean Association's Jamie Beyer said USMCA "is critical for the US soybean sector."
Ontario Premier Doug Ford pushed back on Trump's framing, telling CTV News "we do need each other" and citing Chinese competition for critical minerals.
By contrast, Prime Minister Mark Carney's government did not respond immediately, according to BNN Bloomberg.
