A new barometer finds Quebec's structural economy outperforms Canada, but trade pressures and 38,000 pending business transfers loom large
Quebec has outperformed both Ontario and the rest of Canada on structural economic prosperity for more than three decades, but a wave of U.S. tariffs and a looming business succession crunch are emerging as the province's most pressing threats, according to the 2026 Prospera Barometer.
The third edition of the barometer released September 28, 2026, tracks 28 structural variables across six categories. Quebec's prosperity index reached 134.2 in 2024, using a base of 100 set in 1980 - ahead of Canada's national reading of 129.0 and Ontario's 126.8, according to the report.
The province has held the top position among those three comparators since 1991, driven by sustained gains in investment, research and development, energy efficiency, and human capital development.
Tariff exposure runs deep
The 2026 Barometer is the first edition to quantify vulnerability across Quebec's key export industries. During the 12-month period from August 2025 to July 2026, the 10 economic subsectors analyzed generated approximately $120.6 billion in exports globally, of which roughly $55.3 billion went to the United States. Those sectors collectively represented 68 per cent of all Quebec merchandise exports to the U.S., according to the barometer.
The analysis models the combined effect of U.S. tariffs already in place and Canada's counter-tariffs; measures that came into force on September 8, 2026, applying rates of 15, 25, and 50 per cent to approximately $27.6 billion in U.S. imports, as the Department of Finance Canada announced on August 25, 2026. As Wealth Professional has reported, Canada's retaliatory tariff package creates layered portfolio risk for advisors with exposure across manufacturing, steel, aluminum, and lumber sectors.
Under the scenarios modeled in the Barometer, the combined tariff measures could produce a net output reduction of between $5.3 billion and $6.6 billion in the most exposed sectors. Accounting for direct, indirect, and induced effects, between 17,000 and approximately 23,000 jobs could be at risk, according to the report.
The first of two exposure snapshots covers tariffs targeting a broad range of products and highlights electrical equipment and paper as the most affected. The second adds tariffs on steel, aluminum, and certain derivative products and shows a clear shift in risk toward metal industries. Fabricated metal product manufacturing shows the most pronounced combined exposure, while primary metal manufacturing joins electrical equipment among the most vulnerable.
"In the medium and long term, reducing dependence on the U.S. market while maintaining investment, innovation, and productivity gains will be crucial to future prosperity," the report states. The barometer cautions that if trade tensions persist and continue to constrain investment and innovation, the Prospera index's growth trajectory could slow — or reverse.
Business succession: a deeper problem than buyer supply
Beyond tariff risk, the Barometer identifies business succession as the second major threat to Quebec's prosperity. Approximately 38,000 businesses are expected to change hands within the next three years, according to Repreneuriat Québec data cited in the report. In 2023 alone, the 11,755 businesses transferred during that year supported approximately 194,300 jobs.
The report pushes beyond the conventional focus on finding buyers, raising the more fundamental question: of those 38,000 businesses, how many are actually ready to be transferred? It argues that preparation on both sides of the transaction is essential. For buyers, that means better access to financing, stronger management training, and tax and financial mechanisms suited to younger acquirers. For sellers, it means beginning transition planning several years in advance, reducing owner dependency, documenting processes, and transferring institutional knowledge before a deal is struck.
"A successful transfer depends on more than just legal and financial preparation; sellers and buyers must also prepare themselves on a personal level," said Alain Robichaud, senior partner at Quadrat Conseils in Montreal. "It is this comprehensive planning that makes it possible to preserve the business's value and ensure its long-term viability."
Seven years after their transfer, 73 per cent of the businesses acquired in 2015 were still in operation, compared with 49 per cent of businesses established in that same year.
In 2023, businesses that had been transferred generated 13.3 per cent more revenue per employee than their counterparts. Since 2015, those transferred businesses increased their R&D spending by 16.3 per cent, while spending by other companies declined by 23.3 per cent, according to the Barometer.
For advisors with business-owner clients considering an exit, these figures make the case for early engagement. Wealth Professional has covered the widening gap between retirement intent and documented plans among Canadian advisors themselves; a dynamic that mirrors the broader business succession challenge the Barometer describes.
Structural headwinds remain
Despite its top ranking, Quebec is not without persistent structural vulnerabilities. The Barometer identifies high import levels, elevated household debt, and a shrinking working-age population as ongoing drags on the province's prosperity trajectory.
These factors create the context within which the tariff shock and succession wave are landing — making the combination more difficult to absorb than it might appear in isolation.
Julie Doré, managing partner at BCF Business Law in Montreal, framed the rationale for the barometer in terms that resonate with advisors navigating uncertain client conversations: "To move Quebec's economy forward, we must first thoroughly understand it: grasp the changes that are shaping it, anticipate the risks, and identify the drivers of growth."
