Seven members agreed to raise June output — but Iran's Hormuz blockade means the extra supply has nowhere to go
Oil is hitting four‑year highs while OPEC+ insists it still “calls the shots” – but much of the extra supply exists only on paper.
Seven OPEC+ members — Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, and Saudi Arabia — agreed Sunday to raise their collective production quota by 188,000 barrels per day for June, the third consecutive monthly increase.
The decision came four days after the UAE quit the group, yet the joint statement issued after the virtual meeting made no mention of the departure.
According to Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon, the silence was a sign of tense relations within the cartel.
“By sticking to the same production path — just minus the UAE — it's acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability,” Leon told AFP.
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz — imposed in response to US-Israeli strikes that triggered the war on February 28 — has effectively trapped Gulf oil exports, making the quota hike largely meaningless in physical terms.
The blockade is directly hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
As reported by Reuters, crude output from all OPEC+ members averaged 35.06m bpd in March, down 7.7m bpd from February, with Iraq and Saudi Arabia recording the steepest cuts due to constrained exports.
Saudi Arabia's June quota rises to 10.291m bpd — against actual reported production of just 7.76m bpd in March.
According to Rystad Energy's Priya Walia, total OPEC+ output fell to 27.68m bpd in March against a monthly quota of 36.73m bpd — a shortfall of approximately ninem bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint.
Leon said the move sent “a two-layer message”: the UAE's exit would not disrupt OPEC+, and the group still controls global oil supply.
The real impact on physical supply is “very limited,” he told AFP, given constraints in the Strait of Hormuz — despite output rising on paper.
Oil executives and global traders cited by Reuters say even once the strait reopens, normalising flows could take several weeks to months.
Kpler analyst Amena Bakr described the departure as “a big deal” for OPEC — far more consequential than Qatar's exit in 2019 or Angola's in 2023.
The UAE has invested heavily in oil infrastructure in recent years.
State-owned ADNOC plans to raise output by 5m bpd by 2027, well above the country's last quota of around 3.5m bpd, and on Sunday pledged US$55bn in new project spending over the next two years — confirming it is accelerating growth unconstrained by OPEC+ ceilings.
The departure also raises the question of who leaves next.
Iraq and Kazakhstan — both repeatedly accused of surpassing their quotas — represent the same tension between national production ambitions and cartel discipline that drove the UAE out.
Russia, the group's second-biggest producer, has been the main beneficiary of soaring energy prices.
However, per BNN Bloomberg, it appears to be struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas as its own war in Ukraine drags on and Ukrainian drones strike oil industry facilities.
As reported by AP News, Brent crude surged 5.8 percent to settle at US$114.44 on Monday after Iran struck the UAE for the first time since the early April ceasefire — a move that followed US President Trump's announcement that the US would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
The supply disruption has already driven oil prices to a four-year high above US$125 per barrel, with analysts beginning to forecast widespread jet fuel shortages within one to two months and a spike in global inflation.
The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent and the Dow dropped 557 points.
The seven OPEC+ members are scheduled to meet again on June 7.
