Ninepoint Partners says geopolitical disruption has reshuffled the H2 2026 investment case for Canadian advisors
Ninepoint Partners LP published its 2026 Mid-Year Market Outlook on June 17, giving Canadian advisors a reading of where the firm’s portfolio managers see the strongest opportunities across six asset classes in the months ahead.
The Toronto-based firm manages approximately $8.2 billion in assets under management and institutional contracts.
“The year started with a clear consensus that inflation was drifting back toward target, rates were coming down, and the economy was on steady footing,” said James Fox, Co-CEO and Managing Partner at Ninepoint Partners.
“The conflict in the Middle East changed that almost overnight, with both advisors and investors re-assessing where the real opportunities are and what risks exist.”
Co-CEO and Managing Partner John Wilson said the speed of that shift is exactly why active positioning matters going into H2.
“What this first half demonstrated, again, is how quickly the market backdrop can change,” Wilson said. “That’s why active management matters. Despite the global uncertainty, equity markets have remained resilient, supported by AI and data centre investment, demand for metals and critical minerals and sovereignty over critical infrastructure.”
Where Ninepoint active management sees opportunity in traditional assets
On fixed income: tariffs, energy costs, and AI spending have pushed US rate expectations toward upside risk rather than further cuts. Ninepoint is running low duration. Spreads in credit markets are expected to widen as new issuance hits a record pace.
On energy: the firm believes producers’ cash flow potential is not yet reflected in equity prices — particularly if oil holds at elevated levels once the Strait of Hormuz situation resolves. It sees a disconnect between where stocks are trading and what the underlying fundamentals support.
On global equities: the firm expects the momentum of the first half to continue. AI capital expenditure and corporate earnings are identified as the main drivers — not broader macroeconomic conditions.
Real assets and digital assets round out the outlook
On metals and mining: demand for critical minerals and industrial metals is being reinforced by governments moving to secure supply chains, build strategic reserves, and increase defence spending. Ninepoint also sees value in silver equities and says the multi-year bull run in gold has further to go.
On infrastructure: the electrification of the global economy — combined with national security-driven project investment — is expected to sustain above-trend spending in Canada and abroad. Advisors tracking how Canadian asset managers are responding to infrastructure demand can find related coverage on Wealth Professional.
On digital assets: the firm argues the asset class has completed its transition from speculative technology to financial infrastructure. Banks, asset managers, exchanges, and payment networks that were once resistant are now active adopters.
Advisors looking for context on Ninepoint’s approach to alternative strategies or its 2025 market outlook can find both on Wealth Professional.
The full 2026 Mid-Year Market Outlook is available at ninepoint.com
