A BCG report finds private credit and hedge funds driving CIB growth while AI reshapes bank operating economics through 2030
Global corporate and investment banking revenues are on pace to hit a record $1.1 trillion in 2026 but where that money is coming from, and who is competing for it, is shifting fast, with significant implications for financial advisors and wealth managers navigating an increasingly complex capital markets landscape.
That is the central finding of A Golden Window for Growth, Boston Consulting Group's 2026 Corporate and Investment Banking Report, published last week, which projects the total CIB revenue pool (including nonbank financial institutions) will reach approximately $1.4 trillion by 2030, growing at roughly 5% a year. The report draws on BCG Expand data and BCG's proprietary analysis.
Sponsor revenues have grown approximately 5.5% a year over the past two years while hedge fund revenues have grown approximately 9%, compared with roughly 1.7% for traditional corporate clients. That divergence is reshaping how banks staff and price their services and what advisors can expect when they tap institutional banking relationships on behalf of high-net-worth clients.
The private credit engine
Perhaps the most consequential shift for wealth professionals is the continued ascent of private credit.
Private-credit fund financing is the fastest-growing CIB product area, with revenues compounding at roughly 15% a year from 2022 through 2025, according to BCG. The firm expects that growth trajectory to persist as financial sponsors and hedge funds continue demanding bespoke financing solutions that traditional bank balance sheets are less well-positioned to provide.
As banks restructure coverage around sponsors and alternative asset clients, the quality and depth of institutional banking services available to wealth management clients (particularly those in the high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth segments) is likely to be reshaped.
Nonbanks close the competitive gap
The share of CIB revenues held by nonbank financial institutions has grown almost fivefold, from roughly 4% in 2013 to an estimated 19% by the end of 2026, with BCG projecting approximately 23% by 2030.
Hedge funds and financial sponsors, the clients most aggressively courted by both banks and their nonbank rivals, are accelerating this trend by demanding financing through market cycles, proprietary research, and technology-enabled service that smaller institutions struggle to match.
BCG managing director Julian Hein, a co-author of the report, said the institutions best positioned to grow are those that have centralized client coverage rather than organizing around product silos.
"Sponsors and hedge funds are raising the bar," Hein said. "They expect financing through the cycle, proprietary insight, and technology-enabled coverage, and they can tell a bank that has redesigned its workflows from one that has simply added new tools. Banks that meet that standard, with one accountable relationship owner rather than a handful of product teams, are best placed to share in the growth."
AI frees capacity, but doesn't eliminate jobs
The report addresses head-on what AI will actually mean for bank workforces - a question with downstream relevance for advisors whose institutional counterparties are undergoing operational transformation.
BCG estimates that up to 40% of current full-time-equivalent capacity in middle- and back-office functions could be freed up by 2030, measured against today's job profiles. Freed capacity is not the same as a net head count reduction: much of it may be absorbed by new roles as banks redeploy staff toward higher-value, judgment-intensive work.
The financial stakes of getting that transformation right are significant. By 2030, leading CIBs are on track to sustain a cost-to-income ratio of roughly 53% and a return on tangible equity of approximately 21%, compared with roughly 68% and 10% for laggards, the report projects. That performance gap has direct consequences for the stability and quality of institutional banking partnerships that advisory firms rely on.
Geography matters more than ever
The report's regional breakdown underscores that the growth being captured (or missed) will increasingly be determined at the country level rather than the regional average.
North America will remain the largest region, with roughly 46% of the revenue pool, growing approximately 4% a year to 2030, while Asia-Pacific is expected to grow fastest, at approximately 5% a year, with growth driven by Japan's rates normalization, an equity and debt capital markets boom in India, and Southeast Asia's emergence as a private capital and wealth management hub.
BCG managing director and senior partner Ingmar Brömstrup framed the broader message plainly. "Growth is concentrating in particular clients and in particular markets," Brömstrup said. "From the country-level engines in Asia-Pacific to the largest base in North America, banks that pair the right client coverage with the right markets can capture growth that regional averages hide. Today's record revenues are what allow banks to build that now."
The full report, A Golden Window for Growth, is available at bcg.com.
