Gallup index falls to -45 even as Conference Board's leading indicator edges up in April
Pessimism about the US economy deepened sharply in May, with Gallup's Economic Confidence Index dropping to its weakest reading since October 2022 (-45) as surging energy costs and widespread gloom about the economic trajectory converged to darken the public's financial mood heading into summer.
The May decline, measured from a poll conducted May 1-17, pushed the index down seven points from -38 in April. The index runs on a theoretical scale of +100 to -100, and the current reading sits above the June 2022 trough of -58, a period defined by high inflation and $4-plus gasoline. But confidence has declined steadily for four straight months across party lines.
The polling period opened before the May 12 release of April inflation data, which showed consumer prices rising at their fastest annual rate since May 2023. Energy costs accounted for much of that increase, with gasoline prices hitting levels not seen since 2022, driven in large part by the disruption to global oil markets stemming from the US conflict with Iran.
Only 16% of Americans now rate current economic conditions as excellent or good; the lowest share since April 2023.
Nearly half, 49%, describe the economy as poor, a figure that has climbed steadily since the start of 2026, when it stood at 37%. Meanwhile, three in four US adults say the economy is getting worse, matching a high last recorded in May 2023 and reflecting a pessimism that has grown more entrenched with each passing month.
The partisan dimension adds texture to the trend. Republican confidence, measured at +22, remains positive but has registered its lowest point of President Donald Trump's second term. Independent sentiment sits at -58 and Democrats at -80, both also the weakest readings since Trump returned to office in January 2025.
All three groups have seen confidence erode by double digits since February: Republicans down 33 points, independents down 29, Democrats down 13.
Mentions of the high cost of living as the nation's most pressing problem climbed to 15% in May, nearly double the 8% recorded in February. Government dysfunction remains the top-cited concern at 26%, but inflation is closing the gap. Gas prices specifically drew mention as the top problem from 4% of respondents overall, including 10% of Republicans.
Conference Board data
The gloom in household sentiment arrives alongside a more equivocal signal from The Conference Board, which reported that its Leading Economic Index edged up 0.1% in April to 97.4, a fractional rebound after a 0.6% contraction in March.
"The US LEI increased slightly in April, driven mainly by a rebound in stock prices and an increase in building permits, only for two and more units," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "The leading index rose in two of the past three months, but the gains did not offset the steep fall registered in March. As a result, the LEI's six- and twelve-month growth rates were negative, signaling fragile economic conditions ahead.”
Over the six months through April, the LEI fell 0.7%, a shallower rate of decline than the 1.0% drop recorded over the prior six-month period.
Looking ahead, Zabinska-La Monica said that strong investment in AI infrastructure, data centers, and energy production likely will have a positive impact on growth and sustain business spending but may only partially offset weakness on the consumer side.
“Higher gasoline and energy costs — paired with weak hiring — will likely erode household purchasing power in the months ahead, particularly for lower- and middle-income consumers. The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.7% y/y GDP growth in 2026, revised up slightly from last update of 1.6%,” she said.
The Conference Board's Coincident Economic Index, which tracks current rather than forward-looking conditions, rose 0.3% in April to 115.6, with all four of its components — payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production — posting positive contributions.
That reading offers a modest counterweight to the LEI's cautious outlook, though it does little to address the underlying anxiety reflected in the Gallup data.
