4% drop in contributions, $8.3 trillion smaller fund by 2100 - but the plan still works
Canada's chief actuary has confirmed the base Canada Pension Plan can support a 40 basis point cut to its contribution rate starting in 2027.
Assia Billig, chief actuary at the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, submitted the 33rd Actuarial Report on the CPP to the Minister of Finance and National Revenue, François-Philippe Champagne, on May 28, 2026. The report was published June 8, 2026 and examines the financial effect of Bill C-30, the Spring Economic Update 2026 Implementation Act, tabled in Parliament on April 28, 2026.
Under the bill, the combined employer-employee statutory contribution rate for the base CPP would drop from 9.9% to 9.5% effective January 1, 2027, with the rate paid by each side falling from 4.95% to 4.75%. The new rates would apply to the same band of earnings as today - on income above the Year's Basic Exemption of $3,500 up to the Year's Maximum Pensionable Earnings. All other provisions of the Canada Pension Plan remain unchanged, and the additional CPP that began in 2019 is not affected.
For advisors modelling client retirement income, the reduced rate is still sufficient to finance the base plan over the long term. The minimum contribution rate - the rate actuaries say is needed to keep the plan sustainable - rises by one basis point to 9.22% for 2028 to 2033 and 9.20% for 2034 and thereafter, which remains below the new 9.5% statutory rate.
Contributions are projected to be 4% lower from 2027 onward, translating into $7.2 billion less flowing into the plan in 2050 and $37 billion less by 2100. Starting in 2027, contributions are projected to be lower than expenditures - four years sooner than under the previous report.
The CPP asset pool, which sat at $651 billion at the end of 2024, is now projected to reach $2.7 trillion by 2050 and $19 trillion by 2100. Those figures are $239 billion, or 8%, lower by 2050 and $8.3 trillion, or 30%, lower by 2100 than projected under the Revised 32nd CPP Actuarial Report. Investment income as a share of total revenues is projected to be one percentage point lower in 2050 and seven percentage points lower in 2100.
The assets-to-expenditures ratio - the ratio of assets at year-end to the next year's expenditures - is projected to climb to 13.0 by 2050 and 14.5 by 2100 under the reduced rate, compared with 14.1 and 20.7 in the previous report. Open group balance sheet figures show assets at 101.4% of obligations as at December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2030, down from 104.7% and 105.1% in the previous report.
The report notes that the Canadian and global economies are going through a period of heightened uncertainty tied to escalating trade tensions, environmental risks, and geopolitical conflicts, but those risks have not been recognized as subsequent events for the purposes of this report.
The full text of the 33rd Actuarial Report supplementing the Revised 32nd Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan is available at www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca.
