New Fraser Institute research shows little shift in energy mix despite billions in green policy spending
Canadian households and industry remain almost as dependent on oil, gas and coal as they were in the mid-1990s, according to new research that could inform how advisors frame energy-transition risk with clients holding exposure to the sector.
Fossil fuels made up 76.3% of the country's domestic energy consumption in 2024, only marginally below the 76.8% recorded in 1995, despite extensive government spending and regulation aimed at accelerating a shift to green energy. The figures come from a new report published by the Fraser Institute's Mathison Centre Research Initiatives, an independent Canadian public policy think-tank, titled Energy Facts – Canada Edition.
Kenneth P. Green, co-author of the report, said the numbers challenge widely held assumptions about how far the transition has actually progressed.
"There is a lot of misunderstandings about the reality of energy production and consumption in Canada today, which is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels and will be for many years to come," Green said.
The report finds Canada's biggest energy-consuming sectors, industrial, transportation and residential, remain overwhelmingly reliant on fossil sources. Industrial energy use drew 74.0% of its supply from fossil fuels in 2024, while the residential sector sourced 50.6% from fossil fuels, with natural gas continuing to dominate home heating. Transportation showed the heaviest dependence by far, with fossil fuels accounting for 98.7% of energy consumed in the sector.
Provincial impact
Energy remains a significant driver of the national economy, contributing 6.9% of Canada's total output in 2025, the report notes. That contribution varies sharply by province. Alberta drew the largest share, with energy representing 30.1% of provincial GDP in 2024, followed by Newfoundland and Labrador at 22.7% and Saskatchewan at 21.5%.
Elmira Aliakbari, director of natural resource studies at the Fraser Institute, said the findings underline how central fossil fuels remain to everyday affordability and to the broader economy.
"Fossil fuels remain essential to Canadians' living standard as they provide reliable and affordable energy and are a major economic driver," Aliakbari said.
She argued the data should shape how policymakers approach energy planning going forward.
"Policymakers and Canadians more broadly need to understand our continued reliance on fossil fuels so that energy policies are grounded in the realities of Canada's energy needs and opportunities," Aliakbari said.
