Buyers return to value-priced markets even as national prices dip and trade risk lingers
Detached home sales climbed across a majority of Canada's largest housing markets in the first half of 2026, as buyers took advantage of pricing that remains below pandemic-era peaks, even as national home values slipped on an annual basis and ongoing trade uncertainty kept some purchasers cautious.
According to the 2026 REMAX Canada Hot Pocket Communities Report, 61% of the 83 markets it tracked across the Greater Toronto Area, Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley posted detached sales gains between January 1 and June 30 compared with the same period a year earlier. Only 6% of those markets saw values rise over the same window.
“There's no question that buyers are cautiously optimistic, taking advantage of pricing that is off peak pandemic levels,” said Don Kottick, president of REMAX Canada. “Before we call it a 'recovery,' it's worth remembering that the rebound remains narrow, selective and far from guaranteed. Detached housing may be finding its footing, but affordability, confidence and potential shadow inventory remain wild cards in its comeback.”
REMAX Canada noted that detached listings are being absorbed at a faster pace as more buyers step back into the market, a trend that could eventually push values higher, particularly in more affordable pockets of the country.
Fraser Valley led the way, with detached sales climbing in all six communities studied, four of which posted double-digit gains. Toronto's 416 core followed with 60% of its 35 tracked communities showing increased detached buying activity, while close to 59% of Greater Vancouver's areas recorded similar upticks.
The two standout performers were New Westminster in Greater Vancouver and the Newtonbrook West, Willowdale West, Westminster-Branson and Lansing-Westgate cluster in Toronto's C07 district, both of which saw sales rise more than 50% year over year.
National prices dip
The sales momentum comes as Royal LePage's second-quarter House Price Survey and Market Forecast shows Canada's housing recovery is arriving later than usual this year.
The national aggregate home price fell 1.4% year over year to $814,900 in the second quarter, though it edged up just 0.2% from the first quarter, suggesting the market has largely stabilized after a sluggish start to the year.
“After a sluggish first quarter, the spring housing market finally got rolling in May. Several regions are now seeing that uptick in momentum carry into summer, as buyers who held back earlier in the year re-enter the market,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “In many cases, what has kept consumers on the sidelines is not a lack of interest, but a lack of urgency. In markets where inventory levels remain elevated, homebuyers have the luxury of time, browsing at their own pace until the right property comes along. That measured approach is reinforced by a persistent backdrop of economic uncertainty, which continues to shape how and when many Canadians decide to move.”
Toronto and Vancouver saw the steepest annual declines, down 4.6% and 4.5%, respectively, though both markets showed signs of quarterly stabilization. Quebec City, meanwhile, posted its first quarter-over-quarter price decline in more than three years after a stretch of standout growth, a shift Royal LePage broker Michèle Fournier attributed in part to a more cautious buyer pool and looming provincial elections that could add further uncertainty this fall.
Trade and rate backdrop
Adding to the mix of factors shaping buyer behaviour, Canada's Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% year over year in May, up from 2.8% in April and the highest reading since January 2024, driven largely by energy costs tied to conflict in the Middle East.
The Bank of Canada's key lending rate has held at 2.25% since October 2025, and Soper said a modest increase, should one occur, is unlikely to shake the market the way earlier rate surges did.
“Should rising inflation become more widespread, the Bank may be compelled to raise rates again,” Soper said. “What our regional experts tell us, however, is that a modest rate increase is unlikely to set off alarm bells. This is not the post-pandemic era, when steep and rapid rate surges sent shock waves through the market. Today's buyers are thinking strategically, weighing broader risks to their employment and the economy, rather than reacting to incremental rate moves.”
The decision by the United States on July 1 not to extend the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement for a fresh 16-year term, triggering annual reviews through to its 2036 expiry, has added another layer of hesitation for some households.
“For Canadian consumers, ambiguity surrounding CUSMA is another reason to pause and reassess before making major financial commitments, including the decision to buy or sell a home. Even though most are not directly impacted through their employment, we know that trade-related anxiety is enough to weigh on consumer confidence,” Soper said. “Still, we are optimistic that Canada's strong economic foundation will keep the fall market on track. Pent-up demand from buyers and sellers who sat out earlier this year continues to build. The fundamental desire to own a home has not gone away – it has simply been deferred.”
Mortgage renewals nearing the finish line
Royal LePage also flagged that the wave of pandemic-era, five-year fixed mortgage renewals is nearly complete. Roughly 12% of outstanding mortgages, the last of that pandemic cohort, will renew over the coming year, with borrowers facing average payment increases of 15%, according to Bank of Canada data. Soper said the broader risk to the housing market from these renewals has largely passed.
“The over-blown pandemic mortgage renewal scare is all but over and most Canadians have weathered the storm,” Soper said. “By the middle of next year, virtually all borrowers facing significant payment increases will have renewed. While most will be able to manage the adjustment, a small subset of homeowners face a more challenging road, particularly in higher-priced markets where home prices have taken a more sustainable dip in recent years.”
Public market snapshot
At the consumer level, national mortgage delinquency stood at just 0.24% as of the fourth quarter of 2025, while average asking rents fell 4.7% year over year in May to $2,027, marking 19 consecutive months of annual declines as new rental supply eases pressure on tenants.
Royal LePage is forecasting the national aggregate home price will rise 2% in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with the same period last year, an upgrade from its previous forecast reflecting stronger demand in select markets.
