Limited listings, domestic travel shifts and lifestyle demand expected to support modest gains
Canada’s recreational housing sector is poised for steady price growth next year, even as economic uncertainty and stricter return-to-office rules reshape buyer behaviour.
A new outlook from Royal LePage projects that the national median price of a single-family home in recreational markets will rise 4.0% in 2026 to $604,552. Tight inventory relative to buyer demand is expected to keep upward pressure on values, despite cautious sentiment linked to global political and economic tensions.
“Concerns about the state of global affairs are certainly on the minds of many Canadians right now, including recreational property buyers, and are tempering demand in parts of the country. At the same time, limited supply is supporting price gains in many markets,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “New developments in these regions remain relatively rare, and many properties are tightly held by families for generations. This scarcity preserves the exclusivity of these markets and provides price stability, even when buyers are feeling cautious.”
Regional price growth
Price growth varied by region and property type in 2025. The weighted median price of a single-family recreational home climbed 4.3% year over year to $581,300. Waterfront properties saw softer performance, declining 5.2% to $717,600, while the median price of a standard condominium edged up 2.1% to $418,600.
Single-family homes in Atlantic Canada recorded the strongest annual appreciation at 11.8%. Looking ahead, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are forecast to lead gains in 2026, with projected increases of 5.5%.
“Several years have now passed since the gold-rush pandemic era that saw recreational property prices rise at a record pace. Today, the market has moderated, with low single-digit price appreciation becoming the norm in most regions,” said Soper. “While sales and prices among waterfront properties softened modestly in Ontario and BC, this category of land is structurally limited, and the number of homes that can be built along these shorelines is finite. This inherent scarcity continues to support property prices in this segment.”
Survey findings suggest demand has largely stabilized. More than half (52%) of recreational real estate professionals reported buyer interest was similar to last year, while 26% observed a decline. At the same time, 61% said average days on market have lengthened. Nearly half (48%) indicated inventory levels were unchanged, with 28% citing tighter supply.
“Like the urban residential market, it’s important not to paint the recreational housing sector with a broad brush. While there has been some softening of buying activity in recreational property markets, conditions vary from coast to coast,” said Soper. “Some markets, particularly in Atlantic Canada and Alberta, have seen stronger demand and renewed activity, while others, including in parts of Ontario, have experienced more moderate price appreciation.
Retirees continue to be core buyers
“Across these markets, the core buyer groups remain largely unchanged. Retirees planning to relocate to cottage country full time and urban residents seeking a weekend escape continue to drive demand, drawn by the lifestyle and sense of retreat that Canadian recreational properties have to offer.”
Heightened trade tensions with the United States and a growing “Buy Canadian” mindset are also influencing real estate activity. Statistics Canada data shows return trips by Canadians to the U.S. fell 14.5% in February 2026 compared with the same month a year earlier, prompting many households to redirect vacation plans within Canada.
Industry respondents report that 40% have seen increased inquiries from domestic buyers tied to the movement, while 13% noted a rise in interprovincial purchasers. More than half said cross-province demand remained steady.
“Canadians are continuing to swap traditional cross-border getaways for at-home alternatives, trading Florida oceanfronts for Ontario lakes, or Arizona deserts for British Columbia forests. Research we conducted in mid-2025 indicated that 54% of Canadians who own property in the U.S. plan to sell, with many intending to reinvest those proceeds back into Canadian real estate. This could provide a meaningful lift to the market for cottages, cabins and chalets,” said Soper.
International interest remains a factor. One-third (33%) of recreational property specialists reported increased inquiries from U.S. buyers over the past year.
“Canada’s recreational markets continue to attract American buyers, supported by a strong U.S. dollar, confidence in our economic and political stability, and for many, a break from the sharper political climate south of the border,” Soper continued.
“Three years ago, Canada introduced a ban on foreign homebuyers to address housing supply challenges. Combined with a pullback in Canadians purchasing U.S. property, cross-border activity has dropped considerably. However, most recreational properties are exempt from the ban, helping to sustain international demand in these regions. Together, these factors are reinforcing demand, as both domestic and cross-border buyers see enduring value in Canada’s recreational property markets.”
Return-to-office shift reshapes living patterns
Workplace policies are also influencing recreational housing dynamics. As employers increase in-office requirements, some Canadians who relocated to cottages or cabins during the pandemic are reconsidering their long-term arrangements.
More than one-third (35%) of surveyed experts reported an uptick in full-time residents moving back to urban centres over the past year.
“At the height of the pandemic, many Canadians found comfort in the privacy and space of a cottage or cabin. With the wide availability of high-speed internet, many chose to live and work in the country full time,” said Soper. “Several years later, fully remote work is becoming less common as companies call employees back to the office in an effort to rebuild in-person collaboration. As a result, some of those who relocated in the early part of the decade are finding the commute unsustainable and are returning to city centres, reserving their lakeside properties for weekends and summer getaways.”
