Limited options slow seniors’ moves, but shift could open doors for younger buyers
Canada’s housing market is poised for a gradual but meaningful shift as an aging population begins to rethink long-term living arrangements.
A new report points to a developing ‘downsizing wave’ that is expected to unfold over time rather than all at once, as older homeowners weigh their housing needs against a limited supply of suitable alternatives.
Demographic trends are central to the outlook, the research from REMAX Canada finds. With roughly 7.74 million Canadians now aged 65 or older (representing 18.9% of the population) and that share projected to climb to nearly 25% by 2030, the potential impact on housing supply and demand is significant.
“While downsizing won’t happen all at once, the direction is clear,” says Don Kottick, President of REMAX Canada. “Canada’s aging population will undoubtedly shift demand and availability of housing over time, but progress will depend on improving access to housing that meets seniors’ needs.”
However, the transition may be slower than some expect. Nearly half of Canadians (49%) report a lack of downsizing options in their communities, while another 8% say there are none at all. Among those aged 65 and older, the issue is even more pronounced, with 65% citing low or no availability.
As a result, relatively few homeowners are planning to make the move. Just 10% of Canadians say they intend to downsize within the next decade, rising modestly to 16% among seniors. Meanwhile, 46% of older homeowners expect to stay put.
Concerns about limited choice are widespread. Among those considering a move to a smaller home, 73% say they are worried about their options, including nearly one-third who describe themselves as very concerned.
“We’re seeing many homeowners who would consider downsizing, but they’re struggling to find suitable options in their communities,” says Kottick. “Without sufficient inventory to support these transitions, many are choosing to stay in their homes longer, which limits movement of younger buyers across the market.
“Downsizing is an important factor in the natural churn of the housing market, and headway will depend on improving access to appropriate housing options for older Canadians,” Kottick adds. “Without it, our research indicates that many homeowners may delay or abandon their moving plans entirely, further constraining the flow of inventory into the market.”
Despite these constraints, the potential ripple effects could benefit younger Canadians—if supply conditions improve. About 34% of respondents believe increased downsizing activity would make it easier for first-time buyers to enter the market, compared with 26% who think it would have the opposite effect.
At the same time, demand from younger buyers is expected to remain strong. Roughly 23% of Canadians aged 18 to 34 say they plan to purchase their first home within the next 10 years.
The findings suggest that while the downsizing trend is gaining traction, its impact will hinge on whether the market can deliver the types of homes older Canadians are willing (and able) to move into.
