What happens when $2.68 trillion of consumer debt meets a cautious shopper?

Equifax finds Canadians borrowing more while holding off on cars, homes, and big-ticket buys

What happens when $2.68 trillion of consumer debt meets a cautious shopper?

Canadian consumer debt reached $2.68tn in the second quarter of 2026, a 4.18 percent increase from Q2 2025 and a 1.3 percent rise from the previous quarter. 

Equifax Canada's Q2 2026 Market Pulse report also put non-mortgage debt at $712.2bn, a rebound after a first-quarter drop, up 4.8 percent year-over-year and 2.09 percent from Q1 2026. 

The national 90+ day non-mortgage balance delinquency rate eased to 1.76 percent from 1.79 percent in Q1, though it stayed above the 1.70 percent recorded a year earlier. 

Rebecca Oakes, vice-president of advanced analytics at Equifax Canada, said the March to June period usually brings rising non-mortgage debt and falling missed payments, and that this year matched it.  

"Consumers remain cautious, particularly around major purchases," she said, adding that "pockets of growing stress are still evident in some areas." 

Ontario mortgage holders remain the outlier in an otherwise stable national picture. 

Missed payments of 90 days or more on Ontario mortgages have risen in every quarter for the past four years, with knock-on effects on other credit products those borrowers hold

Nationally, non-mortgage debt held by mortgage holders grew 1.9 percent quarter-over-quarter to $304.6bn, and their 90+ day non-mortgage delinquency rate edged up to 0.77 percent, a 0.4 percent increase from Q1 and a 12.5 percent rise year-over-year.  

In Ontario, that rate climbed 2.2 percent from Q1 and 27 percent from a year earlier to reach 0.86 percent.  

Excluding Ontario, the national figure rose just 2.1 percent annually. 

Oakes said the data shows higher interest rates and mortgage renewal shocks have affected many homeowners for several years.  

Ontario continues to stand out, she said, with some mortgage holders struggling to keep up with other credit obligations. 

Consumers without a mortgage fared better.  

Their 90+ day non-mortgage delinquency rate improved 2.3 percent from Q1 2026 to 2.5 percent and was close to flat year-over-year, although in Ontario the comparable rate rose 3.0 percent against the same period 12 months ago. 

Household formation patterns are also shifting.  

Joint mortgages among first-time homebuyers climbed from 57.6 percent in 2016 to 70.9 percent through Q2 2026. 

Among first-time buyers under 35, Ontario and British Columbia recorded roughly twice the share of joint mortgages involving borrowers 20 or more years apart compared with the rest of Canada. 

Oakes said younger Canadians increasingly buy a first home with someone else, and that family support plays a larger role in higher-cost markets. 

Credit card balances grew in the second quarter on the back of seasonal spending. 

Inflation-adjusted average card spend per consumer rose through the quarter to $2,192, 1.4 percent above year-ago levels, lifting national credit card debt to $134.2bn from $130.6bn in Q1 2026.  

The 90+ day card delinquency rate improved to 4.19 percent from 4.28 percent but sat 6.8 percent higher than a year ago. 

Payment behaviour held steady, with 65 percent of consumers clearing their balance in full each month and minimum payment levels stable at 4 percent. 

A recent Equifax Canada consumer survey found 25 percent of respondents expect to make only minimum payments in coming months, while 7 percent believe they are likely to fall behind. 

Oakes said the numbers are stable but consumers may be worried about maintaining that position.  

She described "a significant amount of uncertainty in the current environment" and said any additional economic pressures could affect this consumer group. 

Auto loan balances rose to $179.1bn, up 2.2 percent from Q1 2026 and 4.9 percent year-over-year, but new loan originations fell 9.2 percent from Q2 2025.  

Average new loan amounts increased from $34,713 to $36,979, accounting for much of the balance growth.  

The overall 90+ day auto delinquency rate improved to 1.10 percent from 1.11 percent, driven by the used vehicle segment, while new auto loans saw a slight uptick in severe delinquencies. 

Oakes said many consumers appear to be holding off on large purchases such as new vehicles despite financing incentives and lower used vehicle prices.  

"Economic conditions and employment uncertainty continue to influence household decisions," she said. 

The figures land against a policy backdrop the Bank of Canada has kept unchanged.  

The central bank held its overnight rate target at 2.25 percent on July 15, projecting GDP growth of 0.7 percent in 2026 and a return to roughly 2 percent inflation in early 2027, with the next decision scheduled for September 2.  

Bank of Canada analysis has estimated that about 60 percent of mortgage holders renewing in 2025 and 2026 would face a payment increase, with five-year fixed-rate borrowers renewing in that window looking at average increases of roughly 15 to 20 percent against their December 2024 payments. 

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