FP Canada adds housing focus, inflation nuance in this year’s planning guidelines
Financial planners are being urged to sharpen their approach to long-term projections, with new 2026 guidelines placing greater emphasis on housing costs and short-term inflation dynamics.
The latest Projection Assumption Guidelines from FP Canada and the Institute of Financial Planning introduce updated benchmarks for returns, inflation, and borrowing rates, while also expanding the framework to better reflect real-life planning challenges.
Among the most notable changes is the addition of formal guidance around housing assumptions—an area the organizations say has become too significant to overlook.
“Because housing costs--whether related to home ownership or renting--represent a significant and persistent component of a household's financial picture, the Committee believed it was important to offer planners clear guidance in this area. Establishing long-term housing assumptions within a principled framework supports more consistent and defensible financial projections,” said Nick Hearne, chair of the Projection Assumption Guidelines Committee.
New layer of realism for planners
The 2026 guidelines maintain a 2.1% inflation assumption and project borrowing costs at 4.40%, alongside expected returns ranging from 2.4% for short-term investments to 7.5% for emerging market equities.
But beyond the headline numbers, the release highlights a broader shift: helping advisors better distinguish between long-term structural assumptions and short-term economic conditions.
“Short-term deviations can have a meaningful impact on fixed-horizon planning--such as budgeting, saving for a home, paying down debt, making major purchases, or other near-term goals. As a result, planners may need to take the current inflation environment into account when providing advice or preparing a fixed-horizon plan,” said Julie Seberras, chair of the FP Canada Standards Council’s Standards Panel.
This added guidance is intended to prevent planners from overreacting to temporary market swings while still addressing near-term client realities.
Broader updates improve inclusivity and accuracy
The 2026 framework also introduces updated mortality assumptions, including projections for same-sex couples, aimed at improving the precision of longevity planning.
At the same time, planners are reminded to ground their work in professional judgment and clearly document assumptions when tailoring projections to individual clients.
The guidelines continue to rely on a mix of actuarial data, historical market performance, and forward-looking indicators to produce standardized inputs for long-term projections.
Reinforcing disciplined planning
Despite the additions, the core message remains unchanged: consistency matters more than short-term forecasting.
The guidelines are designed for projections of 10 years or more, encouraging advisors to apply a full set of assumptions rather than adjusting individual variables in isolation.
With housing affordability pressures and inflation uncertainty still shaping client concerns, the latest update underscores the importance of structured, evidence-based planning—while giving advisors more tools to reflect the realities clients face today.
