New Fed chair Kevin Warsh is expected to withhold his rate projection from the dot plot — a shift that could complicate US rate outlooks for Canadian advisors
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to skip his rate projection when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its quarterly "dot plot" on Wednesday. The move would break with more than a decade of post-financial-crisis practice.
The dot plot, part of the broader Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), is a chart that maps where each of the 19 FOMC participants expects the federal funds rate to land at the end of each calendar year. Markets — including Canadian advisors with US equity and fixed income exposure — closely track the chart for signals about the direction of monetary policy.
The FOMC is set to announce its interest rate decision on June 17 at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Warsh's first post-meeting press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Economists expect the Fed to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, keeping the federal funds rate in a range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent.
Why Warsh may sit this one out
Most analysts do not expect Warsh to submit a dot for two reasons:
- He has been in office fewer than four weeks
- He has a longstanding, publicly stated opposition to forward guidance
During his April 2026 Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh was explicit: "Unlike many of my current and former Fed colleagues, I do not believe in forward guidance on interest rates tied to economic data."
That stance was a consistent theme throughout his confirmation. Warsh cited the SEP as part of a broader problem of what he called overcommunication by the central bank, pointing specifically to the Fed's 2021–22 "transitory" inflation misjudgment — which preceded the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in four decades.
"The Fed tells the whole world what their dots are going to be, what their forecasts are going to be," Warsh told the committee. "Well, the Fed's human. Then they hold onto those forecasts longer than they should. I think if the Fed were to wait until it gets into a meeting before making a decision, that incremental deliberation can keep the central bank from compounding its errors. I think these are big changes that are needed."
As Wealth Professional reported when Warsh won his confirmation vote, the new chair has already outlined sweeping changes to how the Fed communicates. These include potentially cutting annual policy meetings from eight to as few as four and scaling back forward guidance more broadly.
What analysts are saying
Bill English, former head of monetary affairs at the Fed and now a professor at Yale University, said Warsh's absence from the dot plot appeared likely.
"It seems to me fairly likely that he doesn't want to submit a rate forecast," English told CNBC. "There may be others on the committee who don't particularly like the dot plot who might be willing to do that, too."
J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli noted that any formal modification to the SEP or dot plot would require a committee vote, adding: "We suspect many on the FOMC are in favor of keeping the dot plot — despite mixed reviews from the public — because it allows them to have a say in the Fed's overall suite of communications."
Bank of America US economist Aditya Bhave said in a report that the June dot plot could "show the Fed on hold for the rest of this year," and noted that at least three of the FOMC's 12 voting members may also project rate hikes this year, according to Tech Times.
Rate cuts remain a distant prospect
Consumer prices rose 4.2 percent in May 2026 — the highest level since April 2023 — pushing key inflation measures further from the Fed's 2 percent target. That backdrop makes a near-term cut unlikely regardless of what the dot plot shows.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, acknowledged the dot plot's market influence despite its mixed forecasting record. "To me it never made a lot of sense that [the SEP] at times was market moving, because its accuracy has been at best middling," she said. "But it is an avenue through which the Fed expresses a view, and the market tends to move on those views."
For Canadian advisors managing US-exposed portfolios, the broader question of where US rates are headed remains unresolved. Warsh's nomination and his "regime change" push on monetary policy have already complicated market narratives around the path of the federal funds rate. Wednesday's meeting is unlikely to resolve that uncertainty.
