New Angus Reid polling shows Canadians want retaliation over concessions — but trust in Ottawa's negotiating team is slipping, with real implications for portfolios and client conversations
With an August 19, 2026, deadline bearing down on Canada–US trade negotiations, the picture is evolving regarding potential outcomes.
New polling from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute conducted last week among a randomised sample of 1,790 Canadian adults, reveals deep public scepticism about Ottawa's negotiating position and a consumer spending shift that could have lasting effects on Canadian equities, retail sectors, and cross-border investment flows.
Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 50 per cent tariff on a broad range of Canadian goods, invoking an obscure provision of the Tariff Act of 1930 to reach products that currently qualify for tariff-free treatment under the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, speaking to CBS News on July 24, 2026, captured the mood bluntly: Canada did not start this trade war. Trump, he said, had gone after his closest ally and number one customer in the world.
The situation grew more unpredictable still as Trump threatened yet another round of tariffs over Canadian wildfire smoke drifting into US states. This was threatened again over the weekend according to CTV News.
The move capped a week of escalating trade tensions and underscored a central finding of the ARI poll: one in four Canadians now cites the sheer unpredictability of the Trump administration, rather than any weakness in Ottawa's team, as the reason they have no confidence a deal can be struck.
The legal ground is shifting under the tariffs
According to Alan Wm. Wolff, a senior research staff member at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in Washington, DC, this is already the administration's third attempt to establish durable broad-based tariffs and each prior attempt has failed in court.
Writing last week, Wolff noted that Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs, imposed under emergency economic powers legislation in April 2025, were struck down by the US Supreme Court in February 2026. A subsequent round, invoking balance-of-payments authority, was invalidated by the Court of International Trade and expired on July 24, 2026. The administration's current approach — framing tariffs as a response to forced labour practices under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 — is, in Wolff's assessment, unlikely to survive a legal challenge either, as Congress has not delegated presidential tariff authority of such breadth.
The economic dimension is equally important. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have found that Americans bear approximately 90 per cent of the cost of comprehensive tariffs, according to PIIE. That dynamic does not eliminate the disruption to Canada — uncertainty itself suppresses investment and trade — but it does suggest the tariff regime may be structurally unstable, vulnerable to both legal challenge and domestic U.S. economic pressure. Advisors who have been building in an assumption of permanent elevated tariffs may want to stress-test that view.
Carney's credibility takes a hit
Perhaps the most consequential data point for advisors tracking political risk is the erosion in confidence in Prime Minister Mark Carney's negotiating team.
According to the ARI survey, just 43 per cent of Canadians now believe Carney can deliver a good deal, down from 51 per cent in April 2026. Half of respondents — 50 per cent — say they are not confident, up from 42 per cent a year ago.
That collapse in confidence matters to markets. Political uncertainty around trade outcomes has historically weighed on the Canadian dollar, suppressed business investment, and increased volatility in export-heavy sectors such as energy, agriculture, and manufacturing.
The reasons behind the lack of confidence are split: 26 per cent say Carney and his government are poorly qualified to handle Trump, while 24 per cent say the Trump administration itself is simply too unpredictable to deal with. That second reading — reinforced by the wildfire smoke tariff threat — reflects a structural concern that no change in Canada's negotiating position can address.
Low trust in deal durability
Even a deal, if struck, may not provide the relief markets are hoping for. The ARI data shows that only 13 per cent of Canadians trust the Trump administration to stick to the terms of any agreement reached by August 19. Three-quarters (75 per cent) say they do not. This distrust is not new — it traces back to the original CUSMA negotiations — but it is now a near-consensus position among non-Conservative voters.
The PIIE analysis adds a further dimension: given that the administration has already shifted its legal rationale for tariffs three times in 18 months, the durability of any negotiated agreement is genuinely uncertain regardless of what is signed. Advisors building trade-war scenarios into client financial plans should weigh the asymmetric risk — limited upside from a deal without durable enforcement, meaningful downside if the August 19 deadline passes without one.
Consumer behaviour is shifting
Beyond the political risk, the ARI data surfaces a consumer trend with direct implications for Canadian retail, consumer goods, and food sector equities. Canadians are actively changing their purchasing behaviour, and the evidence suggests this shift is becoming entrenched.
Retail tracking data from NielsenIQ, cited in the ARI report, found that sales of U.S.-made food products fell approximately seven per cent in the first part of 2025, while Canadian-made alternatives gained market share despite carrying higher average prices. In the alcohol category, sales of American spirits fell by roughly two-thirds nationally after provinces removed them from store shelves — including an 80 per cent decline in Ontario alone.
The ARI polling confirms this shift is consumer-driven, not just policy-driven. Among Canadians who buy groceries, 40 per cent say they are actively checking product origins on most purchases. When consumers identify a U.S.-origin product, a majority say they put it back and seek a Canadian or non-American alternative.
Critically, the report finds this behaviour would persist even if a trade deal is signed. More than three-in-five respondents say they would likely not purchase American dairy (70 per cent), eggs (73 per cent), or alcohol (60 per cent) regardless of a deal outcome.
