Former diplomat and trade negotiator Colin Robertson is bearish on agreement being reached before next week’s deadline
A former Canadian diplomat and trade negotiator says there is no clear path to a deal that protects Canadian interests, as a punishing new US tariff regime threatens to devastate small businesses and erode national food sovereignty.
Colin Robertson, vice-president and fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and a veteran of the original NAFTA and CUSMA negotiations, offered a stark assessment ahead of an August 19 deadline, when Washington is set to impose 50 per cent tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian exports including autos, dairy, and alcohol.
"I don't know how this all ends, but right now it looks like it's going to end in tears," Robertson told BNN Bloomberg.
Robertson identified the core challenge as one of political will. Unlike previous administrations, he said, the current US president has no ideological aversion to tariffs; he treats them as a tool, not a last resort.
His advice to Ottawa is to match temporary US measures with temporary Canadian concessions, avoid permanent structural changes, and keep provinces aligned while pursuing trilateral co-ordination with Mexico.
Small firms bearing the brunt
A new survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) found that 40 per cent of Canadian exporters sell products caught by the proposed duty on CUSMA-compliant goods.
Of those firms, 77 per cent expect revenue to fall, and 35 per cent anticipate declines of at least 50 per cent. The CFIB surveyed 1,833 businesses between July 28 and August 6, 2026.
"Few small firms can absorb a 50% tariff, and few can pass that cost on to customers," said Dan Kelly, president of the CFIB.
Sectors at risk span machinery and equipment, wood and building products, plastics and packaging, and agricultural and food products.
Dairy draws a line
Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC) and the Dairy Processors Association of Canada (DPAC) have urged Ottawa to resist any further concessions on dairy access. US dairy exports to Canada already exceed Canadian dairy exports to the US by more than $600 million annually — a gap that has grown over 150 per cent since CUSMA took effect.
"Our national food sovereignty is not up for negotiation," said David Wiens, president of DFC. "We won't apologize for wanting a strong Canadian dairy sector."
More than nine in ten Canadians believe controlling the country's food supply is important, according to polling by Nanos Research, a level of public support the sector is leaning on as trade talks intensify.
