Industry research shows 67% of near-term renewers anxious about higher rates, with newcomers most exposed
A wave of Canadian mortgage renewals is set to test household finances across the country, with new research revealing how little room many borrowers have to absorb increased payments even as belief in the long-term value of homeownership holds steady.
The findings come from Mortgage Professionals Canada, whose latest consumer survey, carried out by Bond Brand Loyalty in February 2026, polled close to 2,000 Canadians nationwide.
One third of current mortgage holders expect to renew within the next 12 months, the report found. Of those approaching renewal, 67% say the prospect of a higher interest rate is a source of anxiety.
The broader picture is equally concerning. Six% of mortgage holders say they are already struggling to meet payments, while a further 44% say they would run into difficulty if monthly costs increased by less than 15%. Together, those figures point to a significant cohort of borrowers with limited financial cushion heading into renewal.
"Renewal pressure is not just about interest rates. It is about how much room households have to absorb a higher payment," said Lauren van den Berg, president and CEO of Mortgage Professionals Canada. "This research shows many borrowers are approaching renewal with thin payment buffers, which makes early advice, careful planning and access to the right mortgage options more important than ever."
The stress is sharpest for borrowers who entered the market most recently. Among those who purchased their first home within the past five years, 66% are anxious about renewing at a higher rate and 37% regret the scale of the mortgage they committed to. For those who have arrived in Canada more recently, those numbers climb further, with 68% anxious about renewal and 57% expressing regret about their mortgage size.
Payment vulnerability is also higher in those groups. Among newcomers to Canada, 67% are either already struggling or say they would struggle before payments rose 15%, compared with 53% of recent first-time buyers.
"These findings show how uneven mortgage-market pressure has become," said Maxime Stencer, chair of the board of Mortgage Professionals Canada. "Recent buyers and newcomers are often among the most exposed because they entered the market at higher prices, with larger obligations and less room for error. That is where professional mortgage advice can make a meaningful difference, particularly before renewal deadlines arrive."
The report also highlights a notable shift in how Canadians are managing ownership costs. More than one-third say they need to rent out part of their home to make ownership affordable, up sharply from 25% in 2021. Among newcomers to Canada, that proportion climbs to 53%.
For those who do not yet own, the outlook has brightened modestly since a 2023 low point. The share of non-owners who say they never expect to buy has fallen to 32%, down from 51% three years ago. Still, 66% of non-owners say economic conditions have pushed back their purchase timeline, while 22% anticipate buying within two years.
Despite the strain visible across the data, confidence in property as an asset class has not collapsed. The survey found 76% of Canadians regard real estate as a sound long-term investment, and 74% consider mortgage debt to be "good debt." Among newcomers, that latter figure rises to 79%.
"For governments, regulators and industry, the message is clear, Canadians continue to value homeownership, but they need a system that supports them through today's affordability pressures," van den Berg said. "That means increasing consumer choice, better access to professional mortgage advice, and advancing practical policy solutions that keep the dream of homeownership within reach."
