New report finds Ontario near bottom in regional GDP per capita as growth lags peers
Ontario’s economic performance continues to trail its closest North American peers, with a widening prosperity gap raising fresh concerns for policymakers and investors, according to new research from the Fraser Institute.
The latest update on regional prosperity shows the province remains one of the weakest performers in the Great Lakes economic corridor when measured by GDP per capita—a key benchmark for living standards.
In 2024, Ontario’s GDP per person reached $74,143, placing it second-lowest among the jurisdictions studied, ahead of only Quebec. By contrast, neighbouring US states posted significantly stronger results, with New York topping the list at $134,470 per capita.
Across the broader region, average output per person stood at $94,523—roughly 27.5% higher than Ontario’s level.
The divergence has not only persisted but expanded over time. Between 2001 and 2024, per-capita GDP across the region grew by 22.5%, while Ontario recorded a much slower increase of 12.7%.
“Within North America's Great Lakes region, Ontario is clearly an economic laggard and its living standards are falling behind those of its neighbours,” said Jake Fuss, director of fiscal studies at the Fraser Institute and co-author of the report.
The study evaluates economic output per person as a proxy for prosperity, comparing Ontario with eight adjacent US states and Quebec. The findings reinforce a long-standing trend: despite being prosperous by global standards, Ontario continues to underperform within its immediate economic region.
The implications extend beyond headline statistics. Slower growth in output per capita can translate into weaker wage gains, reduced job creation, and diminished economic well-being for residents.
“It’s important for Ontarians generally—and policymakers specifically—to understand that the province is falling behind its neighbouring jurisdictions,” Fuss said.
“The province’s relatively poor economic performance in recent years has real consequences for the economic well-being of Ontarians.”
The findings highlight ongoing structural challenges in Canada’s largest provincial economy, including lagging productivity and slower growth relative to comparable US markets, factors that could influence long-term investment strategies and regional allocation decisions.
