Study tracks four decades of rising debt burden and warns future taxpayers may face higher taxes
With Ontario’s provincial budget set to be tabled this week, new research suggests the province’s debt burden remains historically elevated despite recent declines in inflation-adjusted figures.
A study from the Fraser Institute examining provincial finances from 1980 to 2024 shows Ontario’s real net debt per resident climbed to an all-time high of $29,628 in 2020 before easing in subsequent years.
The analysis compares the fiscal records of successive premiers by measuring changes in inflation-adjusted net debt per person, a metric that accounts for both rising prices and population growth.
“Ontario’s provincial debt has risen substantially in the last few decades, and Premier Ford needs to improve his management of provincial finances to avoid burdening future Ontarians,” said Jake Fuss, director of fiscal studies at the Fraser Institute and co-author of Ontario Premiers and Government Debt, 1980 to 2024.
Overall, the province’s per-person debt has surged more than 410% since 1980, rising from $5,180 to $26,451 by 2024.
While total net debt increased by $104 billion, or 32.2%, between 2018/19 and 2024/25 under Premier Doug Ford, inflation and population growth combined rose by 37.9% over the same period. As a result, real debt per resident has trended downward from peak pandemic levels.
The study finds Ford has overseen the steepest average annual decline in inflation-adjusted net debt per person among Ontario premiers since 1980, at $260. However, despite that improvement, debt per capita during his tenure has remained higher than under most previous leaders, with only Kathleen Wynne presiding over similarly elevated levels.
Ernie Eves is the only other premier to record an annual reduction in real per-person debt, averaging a $176 decline — though he introduced just two budgets during his short time in office.
By contrast, Bob Rae oversaw the most rapid debt buildup, with net debt rising by an average of $1,777 per person each year. Dalton McGuinty followed at $717, with Kathleen Wynne at $475 and Bill Davis at $394.
The report also highlights two major waves of debt accumulation over the past four decades: the early 1990s through the late 1990s, and again from the 2008 financial crisis through the mid-2010s.
Researchers caution that debt trends are shaped by economic shocks and policy choices alike, noting that events such as recessions and the COVID-19 pandemic can complicate comparisons across eras.
“Since debt eventually has to be repaid, Ontarians will face higher taxes one day to pay for the province’s debt burden, so it’s important to understand how that burden has changed over the years,” said Grady Munro, senior policy analyst at the Fraser Institute and co-author of the study.
The findings come as the Ford government prepares to outline its latest fiscal plan, with investors and financial advisors watching closely for signals on borrowing, spending priorities and long-term debt sustainability.
