A new analysis finds the costs of Paris Agreement net zero targets far outweigh projected benefits for investors and clients
Delivering on the Paris Agreement's net zero by 2050 commitment would impose annual costs of approximately $36 trillion (in 2023 Canadian dollars) worldwide - six times the $6 trillion in projected annual benefits - according to a new series of research essays published November 13, 2026, by the Fraser Institute, the Vancouver-based independent public policy think-tank.
The findings, produced in collaboration with the Copenhagen Consensus and climate analyst Dr. Bjørn Lomborg, offer a pointed challenge to the investment community at a time when financial advisors and wealth managers are fielding growing client interest in ESG and responsible investing strategies.
On a per-person basis, the research calculates that achieving net zero emissions globally would generate benefits worth approximately $672 per year, while imposing costs of roughly $4,037 for every person on earth. For citizens of high-income countries, the cost figure rises to nearly $28,933 per person annually through to 2100.
"Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 is not realistic given the marginal benefits gained versus the astronomical costs incurred, which would largely be borne by the world's poorest people," said Elmira Aliakbari, director of natural resource policy at the Fraser Institute and co-ordinator of the project.
The research is part of a multimedia series titled Climate Change: A Fact-Based Assessment of Costs, Trade-offs, and Results, which examines the gap between climate policy ambitions and their real-world economic consequences.
What the numbers mean for client conversations
For Canadian financial advisors navigating client interest in Canada's sustainable finance taxonomy and green investing, the Fraser Institute analysis adds a layer of complexity to ESG conversations. The report does not argue against climate action - it argues for evaluating climate policy through a cost-benefit lens, the same framework advisors apply when assessing any other investment strategy.
Aliakbari said climate policies "should be treated like any other policy priority, by weighing the benefits against the costs and choosing policies that achieve the most benefit at the least cost. Net zero does not pass that test."
The essay series also examines the track record of international climate summits. Despite a 2021 global pledge to phase out coal, the research notes that global coal consumption has risen since then. Fossil fuel emissions reached a new record high in 2025, according to the Fraser Institute's analysis, and the Kyoto Protocol - once positioned as a cornerstone of climate action - is cited by studies as having achieved minimal impact on actual emissions levels.
Investment implications
The debate over net zero costs has direct implications for advisors working with clients who have incorporated ESG mandates or responsible investing criteria into their portfolios.
As Wealth Professional has reported, ESG has become a significantly more important factor for many Canadian investors but advisors are also increasingly tasked with separating aspiration from economic reality when it comes to green investment strategies.
The Fraser Institute's work adds to a growing body of analysis questioning whether the transition costs embedded in net zero commitments have been fully priced into climate-aligned portfolio strategies.
Advisors looking to understand what distinguishes the most effective practitioners in the field can review Wealth Professional's latest recognition of the best financial advisors and professionals under 40 in Canada, many of whom are navigating these exact conversations with the next generation of investors.
The full research series, including interactive data and additional essays, is available at fraserinstitute.org/climate-change.
