The guidelines aim to improve consistency in projections
FP Canada and the Institute of Financial Planning have jointly released the 2026 Projection Assumption Guidelines and accompanying Addendum, providing updated long-term planning assumptions intended to help financial planners across Canada prepare more consistent and unbiased projections for clients.
The organizations said the guidelines are designed primarily for long-term financial projections of 10 years or more and are based on a range of trusted public data sources as well as targeted survey results. For shorter-term projections of less than 10 years, planners may instead use actual rates of return on fixed-term investments held to maturity and dividend yields on equities. The groups emphasized that planners should continue to apply professional judgment and clearly document and communicate the assumptions used in individual client situations, particularly during periods of changing market or economic conditions.
Under the 2026 assumptions, inflation is set at 2.1%, while inflation-linked assumptions such as salary growth and shelter projection considerations are set at 3.1%, or inflation plus one percentage point. Nominal return assumptions are listed at 2.4% for short-term investments, 3.2% for fixed income, 6.3% for Canadian equities, 6.4% for U.S. equities, 6.6% for international developed-market equities, and 7.5% for emerging-market equities. The borrowing rate assumption is set at 4.40%.
One of the notable additions for 2026 is a new assumption for shelter projection considerations, covering both primary residence appreciation and primary residence rents. FP Canada and the Institute of Financial Planning said the new guidance is supported by data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and global research.
“Because housing costs—whether related to home ownership or renting—represent a significant and persistent component of a household’s financial picture, the Committee believed it was important to offer planners clear guidance in this area,” said Nick Hearne, chair of the projection assumption guidelines committee. He added that establishing long-term housing assumptions within a principled framework supports more consistent and defensible financial projections.
The 2026 guidelines also update the mortality and probability of survival tables to include assumptions for same-sex couples alongside individuals and heterosexual couples, a change the organizations said improves the inclusiveness and accuracy of joint-life longevity estimates. In addition, new commentary has been added to help planners interpret short-term inflation conditions when developing fixed-horizon planning scenarios, such as budgeting, debt repayment, or saving for major purchases.
The Addendum released alongside the guidelines includes the data sources used in the calculations and a correlation matrix showing how return patterns relate across asset classes. FP Canada and the Institute of Financial Planning said the publication is intended to support professional planners in building transparent, defensible, and consistent long-term advice for Canadians.
