Ceasefire jitters keep WTI near triple digits and forecasts for 2026 stubbornly elevated
Oil’s risk premium is proving stubborn, with major forecasters now pencilling in years of elevated prices even after a ceasefire deal in the Middle East.
CBC News reports that a new Deloitte Canada study forecasts North American crude will average US$85 per barrel in 2026, compared to just US$67 in 2025.
Calgary‑based consultancy Sproule is in a similar range, projecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$84 per barrel in 2026.
Those calls sit on top of an already violent move.
The article said that oil prices have climbed more than 50 percent since the Iran–US conflict escalated in late February, and WTI traded above US$116 per barrel on Tuesday morning.
Prices then slipped as news broke that the US and Iran had agreed to a two‑week ceasefire, but analysts describe that pullback as a partial unwind of war premiums, not a reset.
Goldman Sachs has trimmed its near‑term targets while stressing that risks remain skewed to the upside.
The bank cut its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and US crude to US$90 and US$87 a barrel, respectively, after the ceasefire, as per CBC News.
That compares with previous projections of US$99 for Brent and US$91 for WTI.
Goldman said it “nudge[d] down” its Q2 forecast “given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz).”
Goldman left its third‑quarter forecast unchanged at US$82 for Brent and US$77 for WTI, and its fourth‑quarter view at US$80 and US$75.
The bank warned that in a severe scenario where the ceasefire fails and Middle East crude output remains down by around 2m barrels per day, Brent could average closer to US$115 in the fourth quarter.
Deloitte frames the current tape as turbulent but ultimately softening.
Day‑to‑day oil prices are “highly volatile,” said Andrew Botterill, an energy analyst at Deloitte Canada, yet he expects prices to ease in the “back half of the year.”
He noted that crude had been relatively weak over the past two years because producers were pumping more than demand required.
The war has flipped that set‑up by constraining one of the world’s most critical choke points.
The conflict “continues to choke transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” cutting off roughly 20 percent of global oil and natural gas supply from international buyers.
Reuters separately reported that the waterway “typically carries about 20 percent of global oil and gas supply,” and quoted Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights saying “the chances of a meaningful reopening (of the Strait of Hormuz) any time soon look dim,” with volatility likely to persist.
CBC News reports that Botterill sees the uncertainty feeding straight into higher consumer prices.
He said there will be “a lot of pressure on all of our energy needs for this year,” and warned that gasoline, diesel and jet fuel could remain high as long as crude stays above US$100 per barrel.
“From a consumer standpoint, that is the kind of pressure that we're going to see in the system,” he said.
Canadian pump prices also show how slowly the system responds when benchmarks swing.
After the ceasefire headlines, WTI traded nearly 18 percent lower at about US$95 per barrel, but the average Canadian price for regular unleaded still ticked up to about $1.85 per litre, according to Gasbuddy.com figures cited by CTV News.
GasBuddy petroleum analyst Matt McClain likened the situation to “a jet coming in for a landing on the runway or a ship that is still moving forward.”
He said that “forward momentum in the overall petroleum system” has to unwind because retailers bought inventory at higher prices, and that the system is not “set up in a way to easily handle extreme fluctuations in pricing.”
On the policy front, Prime Minister Mark Carney said the federal government is aware of high gas prices and is “looking at” measures to help “cushion the blow,” according to CBC News.
Natural gas presents a more nuanced picture.
The outlet reported that global gas prices have spiked over the last five weeks as countries scramble to secure supply for heating and power.
Botterill credits stable Canadian prices to “plenty of supply and adequate storage levels.”
He said that “at the end of the day, we're beholden to exporting a lot of natural gas into the US,” which also has ample supply.
