The stalled CUSMA renewal gives thought for food as Canadians prioritize protecting producers
Most Canadians want to keep full control over the country’s own food supply and are wary of giving further ground to the United States at the trade table.
The finding comes from Nanos Research, which polled 1,051 Canadians late last month as part of a broader omnibus survey commissioned by the Dairy Farmers of Canada. Results show 91% of respondents place a priority on Canada retaining control of its food supply, while 68% believe Ottawa should firmly stand up for dairy farmers in trade talks.
The public mood around trade talks comes against a backdrop of unresolved negotiations at the government level.
RBC Economics noted that July 1 passed without an agreement to renew CUSMA, though the pact itself does not lapse until 2036 and existing tariff rates are unaffected in the meantime. Washington’s refusal to renew the agreement means annual reviews for the next decade under the existing deal.
The Nanos poll reveals that 64% of respondents specifically want farmers and the supply management framework defended by Ottawa. Far fewer see room for compromise; only 21% would accept concessions provided the system stays intact and just 10% think it should be scrapped outright.
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at the polling firm, said the numbers reflect a public mood shaped by resistance to further US demands.
"We are in an environment where Canadians likely have a sensitivity to making further concessions to the United States, and many are unconvinced that accommodations to US requests will improve Canada's bargaining position," Nanos said.
RBC economists Claire Fan and Nathan Janzen pointed out that any country can still exit CUSMA on six months' notice under Article 34.6, though they view a full termination as unlikely given how tightly integrated industrial supply chains have become across the continent.
They noted that proposed US Section 301 tariffs due to replace expiring Section 122 measures later this month have kept CUSMA exemptions in place. Should the agreement ever collapse, the economists estimated the resulting tariff hit would be smaller than it once looked. US duties that would replace CUSMA's duty free access now sit at 10%, down from the 35% rate that applied under earlier IEEPA measures before a Supreme Court ruling against them in February.
Separate exemption lists covering roughly half of Canadian exports would also remain untouched by CUSMA's status, the economists said, leaving about a third of currently exempted exports exposed to that 10% rate in a worst case scenario.
On that basis, RBC estimated the average effective US tariff on Canadian exports could roughly double to 6.6% without CUSMA protection, still low by comparison with other major US trading partners, though auto parts, machinery, plastics, aluminum and wood products would see the steepest dollar impact.
RBC's base case assumes the review proceeds with CUSMA and its exemptions continuing to operate as is, though the economists flagged rules of origin requirements as an area likely to draw attention, given the US may push for higher North American or domestic content thresholds. Most Canada-US trade already clears those thresholds comfortably, with more than 90% of US imports from Canada carrying North American content last year.
Government moves to ease meat trade barriers
The public appetite for a more self-reliant food system is playing out on the regulatory side too. On July 2, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency proposed time-limited amendments to the Safe Food for Canadians Regulations that would make it easier to move red meat across provincial lines, a step tied to the government's National Food Security Strategy.
Under the plan, and with provincial agreement, the CFIA would issue targeted exemptions allowing small volumes of red meat to be sold interprovincially under provincial oversight in cases where local slaughter capacity falls short. The agency said the change is aimed at small-scale livestock producers, particularly in rural and remote regions, who currently have no nearby access to slaughter services within their own province. Safeguards built into the proposal include volume limits, traceability requirements, and a requirement that both provinces involved in a trade provide food safety oversight.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Minister Heath MacDonald framed the change as part of a broader push to strengthen domestic food supply chains.
"Removing barriers to internal trade is essential to building a stronger, more competitive Canadian food system. These proposed amendments create a practical, time‑limited pathway for producers and provincially licensed slaughter establishments to move red meat between provinces when local slaughter capacity is limited. This will help small producers and establishments test new markets, reduce transportation costs, and support food security in rural and remote communities, all while maintaining the high food safety standards Canadians expect."
