Canadian provinces trail all U.S. states on income and living standards

Seven Canadian provinces rank among the bottom 10 jurisdictions in North America for gross domestic product (GDP) per person, and in 2024 the median employment income in every U.S. state surpassed that of every Canadian province.

The data is from an October 2026 study published by the Fraser Institute, the independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank. Titled Squandering the Canadian Century Part 2: Comparing Economic Performance in Canadian Provinces and US States, the report was authored by Jake Fuss, director of fiscal studies at the Fraser Institute in Calgary, alongside Grady Munro and Joel Emes, and benchmarks all 10 Canadian provinces against all 50 U.S. states across living standards, employment income, private-sector job creation, and labour productivity from 1999 to 2024.

The picture it paints is bleak.

How does Alberta compare to U.S. states?

Alberta remains Canada's strongest-performing province but has slipped sharply in the continental rankings. In 1999, Alberta ranked seventh out of the 60 combined jurisdictions on GDP per person. By 2024, it had fallen to 25th making it the only Canadian province to place in the top half of the ranking. Saskatchewan ranked 35th, British Columbia 49th, and Ontario 51st. The seven remaining provinces occupied the bottom 10 positions entirely.

"By comparing important economic outcomes in Canadian provinces and American states, it's easy to see how Canadians stack up to their counterparts south of the border, and in recent years, Canadians have been falling further behind," said Fuss.

The gap in median employment income - the pre-tax earnings of working Canadians - is equally stark. In 2010, eight Canadian provinces ranked in the bottom 10 on this measure. By 2024, all 10 did. Alberta, despite being the top-ranked Canadian province at $39,345, fell from 12th place in 2010 to 51st in 2024. It was also the only jurisdiction in both countries to see median income actually decline over the period, falling by $1,219.

For context, the middle-of-the-pack U.S. state of Missouri ($46,480 in median employment income) outpaced the highest-ranked Canadian province, Alberta, by more than $7,000.

The productivity and employment picture

The gap does not stop at incomes. The study also finds that every Canadian province experienced a decline in private-sector employment as a share of total employment between 1999 and 2024, meaning government-sector growth consistently outpaced private-sector growth across the country. In contrast, private-sector employment as a share of total employment rose in nearly two-thirds of U.S. states over the same period.

This matters for investment portfolios and client planning conversations. As Wealth Professional has reported, Canada's productivity gap is eroding the investment fundamentals that underpin real income growth and purchasing power, concerns the Bank of Canada has publicly flagged.

All 10 Canadian provinces ranked in the bottom 15 of the 60 jurisdictions for productivity growth between 2007 and 2024. Alberta led Canadian provinces with 15.6% growth but ranked only 46th overall. Washington state, the top U.S. performer, recorded 65.8% productivity growth over the same period (more than four times Alberta's figure). The median productivity growth rate for all 50 U.S. states was 28.4%, compared to 11.3% for Canadian provinces.

The study also found that investors and advisors face real headwinds in a low-productivity environment, where wage stagnation constrains consumer spending and, ultimately, the broader economic conditions in which client portfolios operate.

What this means for financial planners

Falling real incomes and sluggish productivity have a direct bearing on household savings capacity, retirement readiness, and the assumptions that underpin financial plans. When median employment income lags, particularly in provinces like Manitoba, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, which all sat at the very bottom of the 60-jurisdiction rankings, clients in those regions may face structural limits on their ability to accumulate wealth.

The Fraser Institute notes that the divergence is not solely an energy story. North Dakota, Wyoming, and other resource-heavy U.S. states significantly outperformed energy-producing Canadian provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador on productivity growth.

The authors suggest the gap reflects deeper structural issues including government size, regulatory burden, and investment levels - areas that have been debated among Canadian policymakers and financial professionals for years.

"The evidence is clear - the 21st century has, so far, not belonged to Canadians, who have seen their living standards and incomes fall further behind those of Americans," Fuss said.

The report concludes that without serious fiscal and economic reform, the gap between Canadian provinces and U.S. states is likely to persist.