Index plateaus above 50 as Canadians grow more optimistic about jobs and housing but remain wary on the broader economy
Canadian consumers appear to be in a ‘wait and see’ mode, according to the latest reading of a weekly measure.
The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index edged back from a brief high this week, settling at 51.73 as of May 22; up from a trough of 48.24 four weeks ago but barely changed from last week's reading of 51.88. The numbers suggest a recovery that has run out of steam rather than reversed, with sentiment plateauing in positive territory as Canadians weigh firmer household conditions against a murky economic outlook.
The composite measure has averaged 50.63 so far in 2026, trailing the long-run average of 54.76 that Nanos Research has tracked since 2008. The index hit its 2026 peak of 54.19 in late February before sliding to an April 10 low of 46.31 — a level not seen since the pandemic-era plunge that sent the index to a record low of 37.08 in April 2020.
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, described the current moment as a pause rather than a pivot: "Canada's economic mood is holding broadly steady, with confidence at 51.73, plateauing after consecutive weeks of recovery from recent lows. Firmer views on job security and household finances support the index, while expectations for the wider economy remain subdued."
That split between personal stability and macro skepticism runs through the index's two sub-components.
The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index — which tracks perceptions of personal finances and employment — came in at 55.01 this week, up from 52.92 four weeks ago and hovering near the top of its 12-month range of 50.98 to 57.03.
The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, which measures forward views on the Canadian economy and local real estate markets, was considerably weaker at 48.45, though that too represents a meaningful climb from 43.57 a month prior.
Job security
On the individual measures, job security stands out as the clearest source of resilience. A combined 71% of respondents described their employment situation as either secure or somewhat secure, up sharply from 63.04% four weeks ago.
Real estate sentiment also strengthened, with nearly 41% of Canadians expecting property values in their neighborhood to rise over the next six months — compared to just 30.81% a month ago. Views on personal finances were more mixed, with roughly 42% saying their situation was unchanged over the past year and another 42% reporting they were worse off.
The macro outlook remains the soft underbelly. Nearly 48% of respondents said they expect the Canadian economy to weaken over the next six months, against only 19.46% who anticipate it will strengthen. That net pessimism on the economy is what has kept the Expectations sub-index pinned below the neutral 50 mark for much of the year.
Quebec leads
Regional breakdowns reveal notable divergence. Quebec posted the strongest reading among the provinces at 58.40, followed by Atlantic Canada at 55.70. Ontario and British Columbia — Canada's two largest economic centers — are both sitting in contraction territory on the index at 47.55 and 48.37 respectively, each below the 50 threshold that separates net positive from net negative sentiment. The Prairies registered 50.31, essentially flat.
The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index is produced from a rolling telephone survey of 1,026 Canadians aged 18 and older, with 250 new respondents added each week and the oldest cohort dropped, generating a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
