The survey finds 78% of Canadians back a matched Maple Investment TFSA, 6% opposed
Sixty-two percent of Canadian ETF holders would switch some investments from foreign to Canadian if capital gains on ETF sales were assigned to the investor who sells units rather than to those who keep holding the fund.
Pollara Strategic Insights survey, commissioned by the Canadian ETF Association (CETFA), found 74 percent of ETF holders would be likely to put additional money into Canadian ETFs in the next year under those rules.
Among the respondents who do not own ETFs, 46 percent said they would be likely to invest in Canadian ETFs in the next year, up from 30 percent when asked earlier in the survey without reference to the tax change.
Sixty-one percent of all respondents support the change and nine percent oppose it, with 30 percent not sure.
Support ran to 69 percent among Liberal voters, 65 percent among NDP voters, 63 percent among Conservative voters, and 61 percent among Bloc Québécois voters.
Among current ETF holders, 78 percent support assigning the gains to the seller and eight percent oppose.
Pollara labels the policy allocation to redeemer, or ATR; CETFA calls it an allocation-to-redeemers fix.
Asked about the same change framed as giving Canadian and American ETFs the same tax treatment, 61 percent were again supportive.
Seventy-eight percent of respondents support creating a Maple Investment TFSA, under which Ottawa would match a portion of money invested in eligible Canadian investments through a TFSA, and six percent oppose.
Backing reached 87 percent among Liberal voters, 86 percent among NDP voters, 82 percent among Bloc Québécois voters, and 74 percent among Conservative voters. Among Canadians who already hold a TFSA, 84 percent support it.
Pollara tested a version open to households earning under $90,000 a year and applying to the first $1,000 invested in Canadian-listed stocks, bonds, and ETFs, splitting respondents into three random samples.
Support held at 79 percent for a full $1,000 match, 79 percent for a 50 percent match, and 76 percent for a 20 percent match.
Sixty-six percent of TFSA owners in that income bracket said they would be likely to move some TFSA money from foreign to Canadian investments, and 68 percent would add money to a TFSA next year.
Among Canadians in the bracket without a TFSA, 54 percent said they would be likely to make Canadian investments in one next year, up from 38 percent earlier in the survey.
Forty-two percent of likely switchers would move more than the $1,000 match limit, with a median estimate of $5,000.
Pollara said that even if switchers capped themselves at $1,000, more than $5bn would move from foreign to Canadian investments.
Fifty-nine percent of respondents hold a TFSA and 22 percent own ETFs, rising to 27 percent among men, 28 percent among those under 50, 27 percent in Alberta, and 48 percent in households earning at least $150K.
“Budget 2026 is about Canadians becoming masters of our own destiny. These two measures put that promise in Canadians’ hands. We’re ready to work with Minister Champagne to make them happen,” said Eli Yufest, executive director of CETFA, in the association’s statement.
CETFA describes the Maple Investment TFSA as a matched savings program modelled on the RESP and the Canada Education Savings Grant.
“No Canadian should pay tax on someone else’s sale, and more Canadians deserve a helping hand to save. Canadians want both. Let’s get them done,” Yufest added.
