Home prices slip as spring housing activity lags
Canada’s spring housing market has started the year on a subdued note, with a long winter and broader economic uncertainty delaying the usual seasonal pickup in activity, even as some signs of improvement have begun to emerge in recent weeks.
According to Royal LePage’s latest House Price Survey and Market Forecast, the national aggregate home price fell 2.0% year over year in the first quarter of 2026 to $812,900. Compared with the previous quarter, however, prices were largely stable, edging up 0.7%, suggesting the market may be finding a floor despite softer sentiment.
Royal LePage said the slow start reflects a mix of seasonal and economic headwinds. Phil Soper, the company’s president and chief executive, said consumer hesitation has been driven by weak confidence, elevated energy costs, and geopolitical uncertainty. “In a typical spring, Canada’s housing market would already be gaining momentum, but persistently low consumer confidence remains a drag on activity – especially in our most expensive markets,” Soper said. He pointed to the inflationary effects of the U.S. war with Iran, rising energy prices, and trade-related uncertainty ahead of the CUSMA review as factors weighing on household decision-making.
Soper said three trends are especially shaping the current market: hesitant first-time buyers, move-up purchasers returning to sell-before-buy behaviour, and tight supply in several local markets. Still, he said many Canadians continue to plan moves, leaving real estate professionals “cautiously optimistic” about activity through the spring and summer. That view is reinforced by Bank of Canada survey data cited in the report showing that 29% of Canadians said they were likely to move within the next 12 months, up from 22% a year earlier, while 20% of homeowners said they were likely to sell, up from 14%.
Regional performance remained uneven. Royal LePage described Canada as a “market of markets,” with softness in Ontario and British Columbia weighing heavily on national averages. In the first quarter, aggregate home prices fell 4.7% in the Greater Toronto Area and 4.5% in Greater Vancouver, while Greater Montreal posted a 3.3% increase and Quebec City led all major markets with a 10.7% annual rise for the eighth consecutive quarter.
Looking ahead, Royal LePage expects the national aggregate home price to rise 1.0% by the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier. The brokerage said stabilizing prices, a more balanced competitive environment, and new government support for construction and first-time buyers could help re-energize the market later in the year, even if caution continues to define the near term.
