Over 8% fall as US unit sees grim figures, Trump policy threats
Shares in Sun Life Financial Inc. tumbled as much as 8.5 per cent on Friday after the insurer warned it would fall short of a key 2025 profit target for its U.S. dental business, citing a slowdown in Medicaid funding negotiations and rising claims.
The warning, issued alongside its second-quarter earnings, cast a shadow over an otherwise solid performance from the Canadian financial giant, whose underlying net income rose 2 per cent to C$1.02-billion in the three months to June 30.
The pressure point lies in Sun Life’s DentaQuest division, acquired in 2022 for US$2.5-billion, which provides dental benefits to low-income Americans via Medicaid and Medicare Advantage. The company now expects that business to generate less than US$100-million in underlying net income next year—well below prior projections.
Kevin Strain, president and chief executive officer, said increased claim volumes were partly to blame, as patients rushed to use their dental benefits amid fears of losing coverage. “The claims are also increasing at a faster pace, which I partially think is because people are seeing that they may lose their Medicaid benefits. So they’re going to the dentist more quickly,” he told reporters.
Sun Life said discussions with U.S. state governments over coverage rates had slowed, complicating pricing for services and delaying reimbursements. “The states have been reluctant to pass on the increased claims costs,” Mr. Strain noted, though he expressed confidence the situation would normalise over the coming years.
Political risks and market fallout
Analysts pointed to broader concerns around U.S. public healthcare funding. Provisions in former U.S. president Donald Trump’s recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act—aimed at cutting Medicaid spending—could restrict future enrolment and dent growth prospects.
“We believe that a reversal in the [Sun Life’s] U.S. dental business that caused the company to retract its 2025 profit target for this business has implications beyond the quarter,” National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine wrote in a note.
Shares in Sun Life ended the week down around 8 per cent. Rival Manulife, which also flagged weakness in its U.S. operations, saw a 6.5 per cent decline.
Despite the U.S. setback, Mr. Strain reaffirmed Sun Life’s long-term goal of delivering 12 per cent-plus underlying net income growth in the region, with the dental segment expected to contribute roughly a third of that figure.
Mixed results across segments
Sun Life’s results offered a more nuanced view beyond the DentaQuest miss. In Canada, underlying net income dropped 6 per cent to $379-million, affected by unfavourable mortality experience and weaker contributions from wealth management.
Asia, by contrast, remained a bright spot, with underlying net income bolstered by a 15 per cent surge in bancassurance sales in Hong Kong, India, and the Philippines. Fee income gains and favourable mortality experience also helped offset some of the regional drag.
The asset management arm posted flat earnings of $455-million, as higher SLC Management fees were offset by lower net assets in MFS and weaker investment returns. Group Health & Protection, meanwhile, saw modest improvement, with U.S. dental repricing efforts beginning to take hold.
Reported net income climbed 11 per cent year-over-year to C$716-million, aided by the absence of restructuring charges booked in the same period in 2024.
Leadership transition in the U.S.
Alongside the earnings, Sun Life announced a leadership handover for its American business. David Healy, current head of the U.S. dental division, will become president of Sun Life U.S. effective September 1, succeeding long-serving executive Dan Fishbein, M.D., who will retire in March 2026 after a transition period.
Mr. Healy, a veteran of the company, previously led the group benefits business and oversaw the integration of Assurant Employee Benefits in 2016 and insurtech firm Maxwell Health in 2018.
The move comes at a critical juncture for Sun Life’s U.S. ambitions. As Mr. Strain put it, “Driving business and Client outcomes through digital initiatives remains one of our strategic priorities,” with investments in GenAI tools already yielding productivity gains across the enterprise.
Capital strength and outlook
Sun Life’s financial position remains robust. The company’s total assets under management rose 5 per cent to C$1.54-trillion, and credit ratings from AM Best were recently reaffirmed at A+ (Superior), supported by a strong balance sheet and risk management practices.
Still, investors appear wary of the near-term drag from U.S. public policy risk. With uncertainty surrounding Medicaid funding and potential legislative headwinds, Sun Life’s ability to manage claims inflation and maintain margin stability will be closely watched in the quarters ahead.
