CFA Montréal members predict less than one year of recession

In-house survey on impact of coronavirus reveals majority outlook on economy and financial markets

CFA Montréal members predict less than one year of recession

CFA Montréal has released the results of a new in-house survey of CFA charterholders, which revealed that six out of 10 expect the recovery from the coronavirus recession to take less than a year in Canada (60%) as well as in the U.S. (57%).

Out of 2,900 respondents, more than four tenths (44%) said they anticipate a recession of 6 to 12 months for Canada, while one fourth (25%) predicted a timeline between 12 and 18 months. As for their outlook on the U.S., four tenths anticipate a 6- to 12-month recession, while three tenths (29%) expect a recession that will persist for 12 to 18 months.

Roughly two thirds of members (65%) believe that Asia will show the quickest revival from the global recession, while over a third (34%) held that North America will bounce back fastest.

“Even if they think it is unlikely that Canada will experience deflation as has occurred in Japan, almost half our members will nevertheless be reviewing their approaches, whether with regard to risk management, asset allocation or portfolio rebalancing,” CFA Montréal President Carl Robert, CFA, said in a statement.

In the short term, 72% of those polled anticipated the best opportunities to emerge from equity markets; 27% thought the same about fixed income, and 22% said currency markets would have the best opportunities.

Looking at equity sectors, CFA Montreal members saw shares in information technology (46%), healthcare (41%), financial (35%), and basic consumption (31%) sectors as most attractive in the short term.

Members also indicated that over the long term, the areas most likely to experience the most negative impacts in the long term are real-estate assets (35%), fixed income (33%), private equity (30%), and hedge funds (26%).

When asked to indicate their employment status during the pandemic, 79% of respondents said they are working full-time from home.


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