Can US and EU avoid a US$115 billion trade collision?

Brussels delays countermeasures but outlines broader strike if US imposes 30% tariffs on EU goods

Can US and EU avoid a US$115 billion trade collision?

A second wave of EU tariffs worth €72bn (about US$115bn) could target US goods if trade talks collapse ahead of the August 1 deadline, according to European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, as reported by The Globe and Mail.  

The European Commission has already prepared a €21bn (US$24.5bn) package, and Sefcovic confirmed “this does not exhaust our toolbox and every instrument remains on the table.” 

According to Reuters, Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said the first €21bn tariff list could be followed by further action if no deal is reached, though he added he remained confident in the negotiation process.  

“Tariffs hurt every one, starting with the United States,” Tajani told Il Messaggero. “If stock markets fall that puts at risk the pensions and the savings of the Americans.” 

The European Commission announced on Sunday that retaliatory tariffs will be delayed until early August, as reported by BBC.  

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated the bloc prefers a negotiated settlement, adding: “We will use the time that we have now till August 1.”  

She also said preparations for countermeasures will continue in parallel. 

The delay follows US President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of a 30 percent tariff on EU and Mexican imports beginning August 1.  

Trump’s warning came in a letter to von der Leyen, stating that if the EU retaliated, he would consider raising tariffs beyond 30 percent.  

In a Fox News interview aired Saturday, Trump said the tariffs meant “hundreds of billions of dollars” were “pouring in.” 

As reported by Al Jazeera, the EU’s 27 member states met in Brussels on Monday to respond to the threat.  

Sefcovic reiterated that the bloc remains committed to negotiation but must also be prepared for “all outcomes.”  

Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said, “The EU remains ready to react and that includes robust and proportionate countermeasures if required,” citing a strong sense of unity among ministers. 

According to The Globe and Mail, the EU’s trade ministers called the 30 percent tariff “absolutely unacceptable.”  

Sefcovic confirmed the commission is working closely with member states to finalise the second tariff list and warned that the proposed US duties “would practically eliminate trade.” 

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would work closely with French President Emmanuel Macron and von der Leyen to resolve the conflict, as reported by Reuters.  

Germany’s Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said “serious and solution-oriented negotiations” were still needed but added that decisive action may be necessary to “protect jobs and businesses in Europe,” according to BBC

Meanwhile, the American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union stated the tariffs could “generate damaging ripple effects across all sectors of the EU and US economies,” and welcomed the EU’s decision to delay countermeasures.  

According to Al Jazeera, European stocks fell Monday, with carmakers and alcohol producers particularly affected. 

The trade dispute comes as Trump’s administration attempts to reset relationships with multiple trading partners.  

According to BBC, Trump has proposed tariffs on 24 countries, including threats of 25 percent tariffs on Japan and South Korea, 30 percent on Mexico, and 35 percent on Canada.  

Earlier in April, he imposed tariffs before pausing them for 90 days to negotiate individual deals. 

Despite trade tensions, the EU is seeking to diversify market access.  

As per The Globe and Mail, Sefcovic pointed to a new agreement with Indonesia and said the EU is expanding talks with South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore, the Philippines, and the UAE.  

During the signing of the Indonesia deal, von der Leyen said, “When economic uncertainty meets geopolitical volatility, partners like us must come closer together.” 

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