Bouncing back: Q3 rebound expected for exports

Following a bleak Q2 performance, National Bank Financial predicts a quick rebound for the exports sector

In an August 16 commentary, National Bank Financial has predicted an upturn for the exports sector.
“After seeing the biggest quarterly slump since the recession, exporters have reason to be optimistic about a quick rebound,” the release says.

It explains that Q2 weakness in exports was due mainly to temporary factors. The Alberta wildfires led to interruptions in southbound oil shipments, while an inventory cull in the US translated into decreased demand for inputs from Canada. Those two circumstances, it asserts, are on their way out of the picture.

“Oil production is reportedly rising again, and there are also signs American manufacturers are rebuilding inventories,” the piece reads.

Reporting the fastest acceleration in US manufacturing output in over two years, the commentary reads the figure as a likely stimulant for exports of Canadian manufacturing goods, including autos.
“So, Canada’s GDP contraction in Q2 could easily be followed by growth with a 3% handle in the third quarter,” the piece predicts.

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