As capital pours into Alberta, one real estate investment trust is focusing on a different future - one driven by demographic certainty, infrastructure investment, and opportunity
This article was produced in partnership with Pier 4
When Pier 4 entered the New Brunswick market in late 2020, the region was still flying under the radar. Institutional investment was limited, and the East Coast wasn’t widely seen as a priority for real estate growth. But for Michael Ashby, managing partner at Pier 4, the opportunity was already clear.
“We weren’t trying to be contrarian,” Ashby says. “We were just following the data. What we saw in Atlantic Canada was a set of long-term fundamentals, population growth, low vacancy, government investment—that made for a strong foundation.”
In the years since, that early thesis has been validated. The firm’s initial acquisitions were secured at door costs under $70,000 per unit, with cap rates above 7%. At the time, average rents hovered around $790 a month. Today, those units command over $1,200 - a nearly 50% increase driven by shifting demographics and chronic housing undersupply.
Tapping into demographic momentum
It’s hard to overstate how much the demographic picture has changed in Atlantic Canada over the past decade. “Everyone’s talking about affordability in Alberta, but we’re more interested in consistency,” says Ashby.
In 2023 alone, the region welcomed 32,000 newcomers, a fivefold increase from the roughly 6,000 who arrived in 2013, according to Global News. For the first time, the Maritimes’ share of national immigration roughly matches its share of the Canadian population.
Much of that change has been driven by the Atlantic Immigration Program (AIP), a federal initiative. The program ties newcomers to local employers, improving both admission rates and retention.
From 2017 to 2021, more than 24,000 principal applicants and their families gained permanent residency through the program. And it appears to be working: Statistics Canada data show that Nova Scotia’s one-year retention rate for skilled immigrants jumped from 21.5% in 2016 to 67.6% in 2019.
This influx of people has helped fuel a sustained demand for rental housing in cities like Halifax and Moncton, demand that far outpaces new supply.
“We’ve seen a complete transformation of these urban centres,” Ashby adds. “We’re now seeing 30-storey towers going up in Halifax and Moncton, big-box retailers moving in, and billions in provincial infrastructure spending. The region’s not just growing, it’s maturing.”
He’s not exaggerating. According to CMHC, Halifax rents jumped 8.9% in 2022, the fastest single-year increase on record—nearly four times the historical average. The upward pressure continued in 2023, with monthly rents reaching $1,538, a further 13.5% year-over-year gain, per Halifax Partnership. Looking into 2024 and 2025, Halifax has still seen a year of year increase in rents of 6%, while markets like Calgary and Edmonton saw declines of around 9%, highlighting the relative resilience of Atlantic Canada’s rental demand during a period of broader market correction.
Steady growth over cycles
For Pier 4, Atlantic Canada offers something Alberta doesn’t: insulation from boom-bust cycles. While Calgary and Edmonton have long attracted investor interest for their regulatory environment and affordability, the volatility in those markets makes Pier 4 cautious.
It’s a sentiment that’s increasingly being echoed across the investment community. At a 2024 panel of Calgary-based investors, one participant noted that traditional institutional and REIT capital is simply “not going to be here” in Alberta right now. The reasons are layered: economic sensitivity to oil prices, persistently high downtown office vacancies, and more attractive returns elsewhere have led many larger players to reduce their exposure.
“Calgary’s market behaves like a roller coaster,” Ashby says. “The housing market is highly correlated to the price of oil, which can be seen in historical data, We prefer a more predictable runway.”
Pier 4 considered entering Edmonton in early 2020, when door costs were around $120,000-$150,000. Within three years, those prices had more than doubled. “It’s hard to say whether that’s sustainable,” Ashby says.
Ashby isn’t writing off Alberta completely, but for now, he’s staying put. “We know the East Coast. We’ve been here for five years and we’ve developed the relationships and operating expertise that let us move quickly and execute well.”
Still room to grow
That preference has led Pier 4 to focus on acquiring smaller, low to mid-rise buildings in Atlantic cities - assets that larger firms often overlook. Most range from 30 to 60 units and require strategic refurbishment, which the firm sees as an advantage.
“We renovate to a high standard—modernizing suites, upgrading corridors, boilers, roofing, windows—because we want our residents to have a higher quality and living standard then they once had,” Ashby says. “It’s not just about cash flow. It’s about maintaining and preserving high quality rental units and buildings for our residents”
He’s watching the latest round of provincial budgets closely. Nova Scotia recently announced a record-breaking $2.35 billion capital plan, including major investments in hospitals, roads, and the first significant public housing developments in decades. New Brunswick and Newfoundland are following suit.
“These aren’t just line items on a budget. They’re laying the groundwork for population growth,” Ashby says. “And for us, that means more stable residents, better-performing buildings, and fewer surprises.”
