Canadian house prices still rising but increases are mostly moderate
Investors in Canadian residential real estate and owner-occupiers may have hoped that prices would start to accelerate in the spring, but gains have remained small.
The national aggregate home price flatlined, rising a modest 0.3% year over year in Q2 2025, and declining 0.4% over Q1, according to the Royal LePage Q2 2025 Home Price Update and Market Forecast, released today (July 15).
The median price of a single detached home nationwide was $870,200 in the second quarter of 2025, rising less than $2K from the previous quarter (0.2%) and just shy of $10K from Q2 2024 (1.1%).
The updated stats show that things were worse for standard condo owners where the median price of $592,000 was a drop of 1.1% quarter-over-quarter and a 0.8% decrease year-over-year.
The typical spring market was replaced by one of higher inventory and weak demand in many of Canada’s largest markets as potential buyers were rattled by Trump’s tariffs and the economic uncertainty that followed and has shaped the year since.
“Homebuyers approached the start of the 2025 spring market with hesitation, dampening what is typically the busiest season on the real estate calendar,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “With trade disputes, a federal election, and international conflicts dominating headlines through the first half of the year, many prospective buyers chose to wait.”
There are exceptions to the slow gains for homeowners, notably in Quebec where Quebec City leads the country in aggregate price appreciation for the fifth consecutive quarter, increasing 13.5% year over year in Q2.
But while prices in 38 of the 64 markets included in the data were flat, 26 markets – mostly in Ontario - posted declines.
Royal LePage now expects prices to increase 3.5% in Q4 2025 over the same quarter last year, a moderate reduction in its previous outlook. However, Soper says the fundamentals of the market remain strong for when buyer confidence returns.
“Cautious consumer sentiment in Toronto and Vancouver – the country’s most expensive housing markets – continued to weigh heavily on national average calculations in our second quarter report,” he said. “Toronto posted a strong rebound in activity from mid-May through June, while sales activity in Vancouver stabilized in the final month of the quarter – early signs that confidence is returning. These conditions underscore the importance of interpreting national housing trends through a local lens.”
