Toronto economy to outshine peers

But what’s driving the city's robust economic outlook?

Toronto economy to outshine peers
Toronto is expected to be a growth driver for Canada's overall economy this year and next, the Conference Board of Canada's autumn outlook said.

The outlook points to a 3.7% expansion in Toronto's real GDP for the whole of 2017, marking its fourth successive year of above 3% growth. In 2018, the city's economic growth is expected to ease to 2.5%, still good enough to top other metropolitan areas and keep up with Vancouver.

Centre for Municipal Studies associate director Alan Arcand said Toronto has flexed its muscle during the first half of 2017. And even with the growth moderating since then, the strong economic prospects will linger until next year.

"Toronto's economy was firing on all cylinders during the first half of 2017, but growth has moderated since then and this trend will continue through 2018, as government housing market cooling policies have their desired effect," he said.

The local construction sector is tagged to be a growth catalyst, due particularly to its projected output expansion of 3.9% this year. Strong non-residential construction activity will offset the cooling of new home construction activities.

The housing market activity started to ease after a blistering start to the year, given the Ontario government's introduction of Fair Housing Plan in April. The government's move was to throw a bucket of ice water to the red-hot housing markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region.

"The measures appeared to have had their desired effect and, as such, housing starts are projected to fall an additional 4.4% in 2018 on the heels of a 1.7% dip in 2017," the board said.

The finance, insurance, and real estate sectors will also feel the pinch of the housing market slowdown, as output growth is projected to decelerate from 4.8% in 2017 to a still solid 3.1% in 2018. This trend will also be apparent in consumer spending and the wholesale and retail trade output.

On the gloomy side of the picture, the manufacturing sector is undergoing a slower growth this year as US vehicle sales appeared to have already peaked. The sector will reach a measly 0.9% growth this year before nudging up to 1.4% next year.

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