Markets remain under pressure from Trump, data
Equity markets are mixed so far Tuesday with Asian bourses largely subdued while European indexes are faring better.
International concern over President Trump’s policies and regional data are key focuses for investors and analysts but commodities have stabilized overnight.
Asian trade remains thinner than usual as China and Hong Kong are closed all week for the Lunar New Year holidays.
Tokyo’s Nikkei closed 1.6 per cent lower as the BoJ held steady on policy but predicted a rise in GDP. That was tempered by weaker data on retail sales and housing starts though. The weaker lead from Wall Street saw decline for Sydney and Seoul too.
European indexes are trending higher with Eurozone data showing some resilience and the ECB president Mario Draghi speaking later. However, German employment and retail sales data disappointed.
Wall Street and Toronto are expected to open lower. Canadian GDP and US consumer confidence data will be in focus.
Commodities looking optimistic says Scotiabank
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North America (previous session)
|US Dow Jones
||19,971.13 (-0.61 per cent)
||+1.06 per cent
||+21.28 per cent
||15,405.12 (-1.10 per cent)
||+0.77 per cent
||+20.14 per cent
Europe (at 5.00am ET)
||7,156.53 (+0.53 per cent)
||+0.19 per cent
||+17.63 per cent
||11,714.29 (+0.28 per cent)
||+2.03 per cent
||+19.55 per cent
Asia (at close)
|China CSI 300
||3,387.96 (+0.36 per cent)
||+2.16 per cent
||+15.62 per cent
||19,041.34 (-1.69 per cent)
||-0.38 per cent
||+8.69 per cent
Other Data (at 5.00am ET)
(+0.20 per cent)
(-0.25 per cent)
(+0.37 per cent)
The outlook for commodities is optimistic for 2017, Scotiabank says in a new report.
The bank reports that its Commodity Price Index was up 6.2 per cent month-over-month in December and the outlook for US crude oil prices has been upgraded to $58 a barrel for 2017 and $61 for 2018.
"Oil will remain top-of-mind as OPEC output reductions are monitored and the market finally gets a taste of how quickly the U.S. shale patch can put rigs and workers back to work," said Rory Johnston, Commodity Economist at Scotiabank.
"We anticipate OPEC compliance of roughly 75 per cent, with the strongest and clearest cuts coming from Saudi Arabia and its GCC allies, as well as a successful six-month extension of the supply deal through the second half of the year."
The outlook for base metals is also better, especially for copper. Gold is expected to be weaker though with prices averaging $1,200/oz in 2017 and 2018, down from $1,300/oz prior.